Roto World by Dave Diamond

While the American League has no pennant race, and the National League comes down to the wire . . . how's your roto league doing? Is it close? Will it come down to the last game of the season? Or did someone run away and hide? Did you have one owner who had an infield of Tino Martinez, Brett Boone, Rich Aurillia, and Albert Pujols?

In my league, one team, the Gorilla Men, ran away and hid early on, and never looked back. We've been waiting for them to come back to the pack all year, and it just hasn't happened. Second place is pretty well locked up also. Then there's third, fourth, fifth, and sixth. As of this writing, 4 points (out of about 120 each) separated those spots. Only the top five finish in the money, and only the top four win more than the league entry fee. So, it's a dogfight.

I'm in third, but hanging on by a thread. Losing Pedro Martinez would have been a huge blow, but I traded him right when he came off the disabled list for Jeff Bagwell. (Sometimes, things just work out!) I was hurt early on when Mike Lieberthal (my 8th round pick) went down with a season-ending injury. My pitching staff, which featured Jeff D'Amico, Ben Sheets, and Pedro, all of whom were injured for long stretches, has still carried me. I got lucky with Roy Oswalt (I figured him for next year) and the resurgent Todd Richie. Larry Walker has been solid on offense, along with Craig Biggio and Derek Jeter (although I still kick myself for passing on Juan Gonzalez on draft night).

As we go down to the wire, the key categories are Saves, WHIP, Runs, and batting average. WHIP is the best, with .009 separating four teams at the top. One bad outing can, literally, cost you four points in the standings. The temptation is to play it safe and avoid starters with two starts per week, but there are still points at stake in net wins and strikeouts, so it's hard to hedge. I'm figuring that the last weekend of the season somebody's starter will either pitch a gem, or lay an egg, and that will be the difference.

And while my Mets have unexpectedly gotten back into the race in the NL East - at least on the fringes - my thoughts turn to the baseball fans in Kansas City, or Pittsburgh, or Miami, or any of the 20 cities where there is no pennant race. This is the beauty of roto . . . that you can have a race in your roto league, that comes right down to the wire, even if your home team has been out of contention since July. Enjoy it!

What about your league? Any good races going in? Email me and tell me about it. I'm sure KC would love to tell your league's story!

An Early Peek at Next Year

Whether you are in contention for this year's title or not, it's not too early to start planning for next year. As year-end issues of baseball magazines come out, clip articles about up and coming young players, who might get overlooked next spring. Check out last week's Baseball Weekly, which contained its picks for minor league players of the year at each position. Make some notes about which of them might be worth taking in next year's draft. And over the winter, make some notes about which players just signed new, multi-year contracts. As much as the Players' Association would like to ignore it, it is an empirical truth that players who are in their "walk" year prior to becoming a free agent perform much better than players in the first year of a multi-year deal. Beware, in particular, the guy who re-upped with his former team, rather than jumping to a new team.

As you look back at 2001 and plan ahead for 2002, think about which players had sub-par years this year, but who are likely to bounce back next year. Those guys will tend to be undervalued in next year's draft, because so many owners base their draft selections on the most recent year's stats. Target those guys. On the flip side, look for the guys who had great years this year, but who might not live up to that level again. Avoid them, if you can figure out who they are. Here are a few early predictions for next year:

First Base

Risky: Despite a comeback-player-of-the-year type season, I'm not going to draft Tino Martinez next year. Not only is he not likely to repeat this year's performance, but he has a top prospect right behind him in the Yankee organization, and the team won't hesitate to begin the Nick Johnson era at the slightest sign of a dip in Tino's production. If he gets traded, he'll be a total bust for any other team. Watch out.

Ditto Andres Gallaraga. The feel good story of the season, but don't expect big numbers from him next year.

Good Bet: Mo Vaughn. Remember him? Coming back of an injury, and off the end of the '99 season that was also cut short, he'll be way down in the rankings of many for next year. He's worth a pick.

Also look for David Segui to come back strong after a season riddled with minor injuries. One other sleeper will be Matt Stairs, but only if he gets traded back to the American League.

Second Base

Risky: I said it at the all-star break, and I'll say it again - Brett Boone is NOT for real. He has sold his soul to the Devil. Don't take him with a high pick next year.

Good Bet: Edgardo Alfonzo will bounce back to prior .300/20/100 form. It's a lock. He'll be healthy again. In one more year, you'll be able to add Alfonzo Soriano to the "solid" list, but for now just expect him to keep improving. Also take a look at Todd Walker, who was off to a great year before being traded. If he stays in Cincinnati next year, he'll feel more at home and may put up very nice numbers.

Shortstop

Risky: Orlando Cabrera has had a very nice year in Montreal. Don't get me wrong, I like the guy, but he's closing in on 100 RBI for the season, and I don't think you can count on him for that again. Rich Aurillia would have made this list last year, but I'm now officially a believer. Jimmy Rollins figures to come to earth in his sophomore year, so be careful about projecting him for the same numbers next year. But, with his speed, he'll still be good for steals, which will make him valuable.

Good Bet: Look for Derek Jeter to show more power and run production next year, with other elements of the Yankee lineup needing some picking up. Also, and this is not really a scoop, look for Nomar Garciaparra to be all the way back. Otherwise, not really any under-achievers at shortstop this year.

Third Base

Risky: Albert Pujols shows every indication of being the real deal. He was a highly regarded prospect. Lots of people figured that he'd be in the big leagues this year. Nobody predicted this. But wait to see if it goes to his head. Let's see if he can survive getting off to a slow start next year. Also, be careful about his position eligibility, depending on your league. He may be a full-time outfielder next year.

Also be careful with Scott Rolen. If he's still in Philly, he's one or two bad weeks away from sulking and being booed again, and even Dallas Green won't be able to light his fire. If he gets traded, he'll be under pressure to produce, and he doesn't seem to handle that situation well. Just be careful.

Good Bet: Aramis Ramirez seems to really be getting his legs in Pittsburgh. Look for him to take the next step. Bill Meuller, who was out most of the year with a broken kneecap, should come back strong next year for the Cubs.

Adrian Beltre has come back from his bizarre medical problems and put up decent numbers. Look for him to have a good full season next year. Also look for Tyler Houston in Milwaukee to have a solid healthy season next year and put up good numbers for an improving team.

Catcher

Risky: Charles Johnson. He seems to have a habit of having good offensive years, then big dips. Don't count on him.

Good Bets: Mike Lieberthal and the up and coming Phillies. Dan Wilson, who seems to have figured out how to hit again with Seattle.

Jason Kendall has had a miserable season, as has the entire Pittsburgh team. Look for a positive bounce for next year. Also, don't forget about Jason Veritek, who was having a great season in Boston before he got injured. Project his 2002 stats at about 140% of his actual 2001 numbers.

Outfield/DH

Risky: Anybody who gets traded away from Houston or Colorado.

Barry Bonds. OK, he's the best player in the game, but he's getting old, and next year will be the first year of a huge multi-year contract. Don't expect nearly the same production.

Mike Cameron. The Mariners won't be as good, and the portion of Cameron's stats that are just a reflection of a magical season won't be there again.

Luis Gonzalez is great. He was one of my sleeper picks for this year, but next year he'll probably be overvalued. Don't get carried away. He's solid, but he's not Mark McGwire.

Larry Walker has had a great year. He has a habit, however, of following up good years with injury-plagued seasons. Be forewarned.

Good Bets: Geoff Jenkins. He was the hottest hitter in the league in May when he hurt his shoulder, and he never got back all the way. Wait 'till next year.

Jim Edmonds. Not that he had a bad year, but not as good as the year before. Look for a bounce back next year and a plus value.

Jay Payton. Another guy who was red hot, then got hurt. Look for him to take the next step next year, and for the Mets to put together a better offense around him.

Johnny Damon. This probably won't surprise anyone, but look for him to shrug off this year's terrible first half, and pick up where he's leaving off this year.

Frank Thomas is an enigma, but he's not an old man yet. He will be a good bet for next year, but watch the medical reports.

There's a guy in Cincinnati named Ken Griffey, Jr. Don't lose track of him.

Starting Pitchers

Risky: Roger Clemens. Sure, he's been written off before, but you read it here first. Avoid the Rocket next year.

Robert Person. He's an accident waiting to happen.

Roy Oswalt. I hate to say this, since I own him, but you can't expect 14-2 from him next year. Be careful.

Good Bets: Todd Richie. After terrible start, he had a great second half. And Pittsburgh is bound to be a better team next year.

Some of the big names were injured this year, and may slip just a tad as a result. Pedro is still the #1 pick in my book, and Kevin Brown should be a #1 draft pick for somebody.

Josh Beckett. Be a believer early. This kid is the real deal.

Of course, there will be more of this next spring. This is just a tease.

Root for baseball. Root for America. Enjoy the post season, even if your favorite team isn't in it. Have a great off-season, and I'll be back in February.

Previous columns:

09/10/2001 - An Early Post-Mortem on Your Roto Season

08/29/2001 - Advice for the Roto Player - Keep Your Spouse Happy

08/21/2001 - Advice for the Roto Widow

07/27/2001 - How to Pull Off That One Last Trade

07/18/2001 - First Half Performance - Pitchers