Roto World by Dave Diamond

At this point, it's too late. That is, it's too late to improve your team. It's too late to change your strategy. It's too late to punt a category and concentrate elsewhere. If you're in the race in your league, it's just time to sit back and watch the end of the season play out. (OK, you probably can make minor roster decisions to maximize your chances in certain categories. You can choose to use a reliever rather than a starter if you need to preserve your WHIP status and can afford fewer strikeouts and wins, etc. But by and large, the die is cast.) If you're out of the running, it's time to concentrate on football.

So, what did you learn? You should always ask yourself that question at the end of every season. Take some notes and put them away for reference for next year. The best players are those who don't make the same mistakes over and over again.

It's easy, for example, to chalk up a bad season to "bad luck." Did you have key injuries? Did you have a player you considered a lock inexplicably have a terrible year? Not your fault, right? Well . . . Did you figure you would lock up the saves category and spend two high picks on John Rocker and Matt Mantai? Ouch. The morale of that story may be a realization that you can't ensure that you are safe by drafting two. Once you make your selection and take a stud, move on to other things. You couldn't have locked up a superior starting staff by taking Pedro Martinez and Kevin Brown. As a matter of fact, it's hard to put together a list of 5 starters who had superior seasons each of the last 4 years - without either a major slump season or a significant injury. Think about it. Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux (although some would view his 2000 season as a slump, it was still top shelf compared to everyone else). Who else? Mike Mussina? This year hasn't been great, near perfect game aside. Pedro's injury this year takes him off the list. Roger Clemens had a dog of a year in '99. Curt Schilling was injured just a few years ago. Kevin Brown is injured every year, it seems. Point: pitchers are fragile, and if you pick a lot of them high, you take your chances.

Of course, hitters can get hurt also, but with the exception of certain players who seem to be injured a lot, the average hitter is much more consistent than the average pitcher. Plus, it's far easier to replace a hitter for a few weeks while he's on the disabled list, but replacing a stud pitcher is a much more difficult proposition, since the #6 or #7 starter on your staff (or the guys you can pick up off the waiver wire) are likely to be a big step down, and can hurt you if they lay an egg while in your lineup. Plus, a hitter coming back from an injury is more likely to get back to form quickly - a pitcher with a bum arm may come back, but may not help you (ask owners of Jeff D'Amico). I'd rather have a stable of 7 or 8 decent starters who I can move in and out of my lineup depending on their rotation/opponent for the upcoming week. That way, even if I lose one, the guy who goes in isn't that much worse. (My pitching is #2 in my league so far this year, with starters Kevin Appier, Roy Oswalt, Frank Castillo, Jeff D'Amico (injured), Ben Sheets (injured), Todd Richie, and now Josh Beckett. I also had Pedro, but have since traded him.)

Did you spend a high round pick on a middle infielder? Guess what, unless you got A-Rod, you could have waited. With the years that Brett Boone and Rich Aurlilia are having, if you spent top picks on Derrick Jeter and Edgardo Alfonzo, you're not happy. And even beyond the "career" years of the aforementioned instant roto studs, the year is littered with very good numbers for a lot of middle infielders, and (aside from A-Rod) depth like we haven't seen in many years, if ever. Morale: next year think hard before spending an early pick on a middle infielder. There will be good numbers in later rounds, so you might as well get a stud outfielder or First Baseman and wait for the middle men.

What about the outfielders? Readers of this column will remember that I rated Luis Gonzalez as the #16 outfielder before the season (just ahead of Manny Ramirez), so it should have been no surprise that he has had a great season. The other outfielders who have excelled are no surprise. Bonds, Sosa, Ramirez, Green, Guerrero, Sheffield, etc. Ichiro was a surprise only in that he as been even better than we expected, not that we didn't expect him to be good. (OK, we all got burned by Johnny Damon, but nobody is perfect.) And First Basemen: Helton, Giambi, DelGado, Bagwell, Sweeney, Thome, Olerud, Palmiero, Grace. With the exception of an early injury to Frank Thomas, and Mark McGwire's predictable fragility, the big stats that you expected have been there. Morale: take the predictable big stats from the stud outfielders and First Basemen early. If you miss them, they will be gone, while you may be taking "skill" players who don't end up giving you what you wanted.

And what about those long-shots and rookies? Well, it's never easy to predict. (Next week, I'll review my early season picks for sleepers and rookies, and my mid-season predictions for second half bargains, and see how I did.) But it's certainly worth looking at rookie pitchers for some unexpected production (like Roy Oswalt or Ben Sheets). Albert Pujols came out of nowhere, but probably was drafted in most leagues, since he was a known prospect. In keeper leagues, they can help you beyond this year. I, for example, drafted Roy Oswalt and Josh Beckett with late round picks, and I expect both of them to be fixtures in next year's lineup. Moral: think hard about taking rookies or top prospects who are still in the minors with late round picks, rather than grizzled veterans who aren't likely to have much upside for this year's team.

And what about after the draft? Did you spend enough time reviewing Free Agent options, or did you kick yourself when another owner grabbed the early season call-ups who went on to big things? Did you make any efforts to make early season trades to fill gaps or provide depth? Did you get burned? Did you make an early trade and dump a player who had a disappointing start, only to watch him come back and play well for another owner? (If you traded Todd Richie and Steve Trachsel, for example, you must hate yourself.) Later in the season, did you make the correct call about whether you were in the hunt and trade for this year's help, or that you were out of it and start looking for next year's keepers? Or did you start tanking the season too soon, only to see some of your injured players come back, your slumping hitters get hot in July and August, and end up finishing just out of the money, when you could have done better? Think about what happened.

Now, don't kick yourself too hard. Everyone makes mistakes. Some trades don't work out. Sometimes the trade you didn't make was the best, but sometimes the missed opportunity hurts you later. The point is not to cry over it, but rather to evaluate it. Did you take the time to evaluate the trade before you made it? Were you swayed too much by rooting interest, and trade with your heart instead of your head? Did you let another owner talk you into something that you wouldn't have done if you had stepped back and thought about it? Did you do enough homework and come to the trade discussion with sufficient information? If you determine that you made these kinds of mistakes (as opposed to making a deal that just didn't work out because of an injury or otherwise, but one that you would make again), you can do something about it next year.

Make a pledge now - next year, you'll be more prepared. Next year, you'll have a better draft strategy. Next year, you'll stick to the draft plan, instead of panicking when there is a run on a particular position. Next year you'll take more time to evaluate a trade before you make a decision. Next year you'll be more objective. Next year you'll pay more attention to the waiver wire. Of course, the hard part is sticking to the pledge!

Previous columns:

08/29/2001 - Advice for the Roto Player - Keep Your Spouse Happy

08/21/2001 - Advice for the Roto Widow

07/27/2001 - How to Pull Off That One Last Trade

07/18/2001 - First Half Performance - Pitchers