|
Taking Stock at the All-Star Break
By David Diamond
Take a look at the standings in your roto league. Now, take a look at the roster of the owner who is in first place. Does he have on his team (a) Bret Boone, (b) Ichiro Suzuki, and/or (c) Albert Pujols? If the owner in your league has all three of these guys, then you can chalk up the season to dumb luck. He/she got lucky and picked players who have had unexpectedly great years. What can you do? On the other hand, if the owner in your league who is in first place doesnt have these guys, then youve got no excuse. You are just being out managed.
Two weeks ago, Carlos Beltran hit .478 over 23 at bats, with 5 home runs, 11 RBI, and 9 runs scored. Where was he? On my bench, of course, I chose to go with Brian Jordan, who hit .269/1/5/4. So, being a good manager and wanting to get the hot hand into my lineup, I put Beltran in, and took Jordan out. So, last week, Beltran hit .222 with zero homers, 2 RBI, and 2 runs scored, while in my lineup. Jordan, on the other hand, riding my bench, hit .440 with 3 homers, 9 RBI, and 5 runs. Oy! Sometimes you just cant win. My pitchers are all injured, so I have absolutely no choice about who should be in my active lineup because I have nobody on my bench who isnt on the disabled list or in the minors. My hitters, on the other hand, I have plenty of, and each week I have to make decisions about who should be in and who should be out. I inevitably choose incorrectly. Thats why Im in 6th place rather than 2nd. Want to blame someone for your poor performance in your roto league this year look the mirror.
And so, at the All-Star break, its a good time to take stock of your draft (and any trades you may have made this year) and see whether your problems are that you are a poor judge of talent or merely a poor manager.
The following players have excelled in the first half. This doesnt mean that you should run out and trade for them since second half performance doesnt necessarily equate to great second half performance. Ive given you my appraisal of whether I think its likely that theyll continue to excel. On the other hand, Ive also listed players who have had sub-par 1st halves, and my evaluation of whether you should go out and get them in anticipation of superior performance for the rest of the way. Of course, these are just my opinions. I thought Beltran would stay hot!
First Half Leaders
Using a simple formula for a 5-category roto league (runs + RBI + Home runs times 3 + Steals times 4 + batting average points above .275), here are the leading hitters over the first half:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Player
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
BA
|
HR
|
RBI
|
SB
|
|
|
Gonzalez, Luis
|
330
|
75
|
117
|
0.3545
|
35
|
86
|
1
|
349.5
|
|
Walker, Larry
|
297
|
72
|
102
|
0.3434
|
27
|
83
|
9
|
340.4
|
|
Berkman, Lance
|
315
|
72
|
115
|
0.3651
|
25
|
79
|
4
|
332.1
|
|
Floyd, Cliff
|
313
|
73
|
107
|
0.3419
|
21
|
70
|
12
|
320.9
|
|
Suzuki, Ichiro
|
386
|
76
|
134
|
0.3472
|
5
|
41
|
28
|
316.2
|
|
Bonds, Barry
|
259
|
66
|
79
|
0.305
|
39
|
73
|
7
|
314
|
|
Helton, Todd
|
315
|
80
|
99
|
0.3143
|
26
|
84
|
4
|
297.3
|
|
Guerrero, Vladimir
|
327
|
63
|
107
|
0.3272
|
21
|
67
|
12
|
293.2
|
|
Gonzalez, Juan
|
308
|
61
|
107
|
0.3474
|
23
|
83
|
1
|
289.4
|
|
Sweeney, Mike
|
342
|
70
|
114
|
0.3333
|
21
|
65
|
8
|
288.3
|
|
Alomar, Roberto
|
310
|
58
|
111
|
0.3581
|
9
|
52
|
17
|
288.1
|
|
Ramirez, Manny
|
328
|
60
|
110
|
0.3354
|
26
|
84
|
0
|
282.4
|
|
Klesko, Ryan
|
313
|
65
|
93
|
0.2971
|
17
|
75
|
17
|
281.1
|
|
Abreu, Bobby
|
315
|
68
|
89
|
0.2825
|
17
|
62
|
23
|
280.5
|
|
Sosa, Sammy
|
298
|
72
|
93
|
0.3121
|
29
|
83
|
0
|
279.1
|
|
Rodriguez, Alex
|
339
|
74
|
105
|
0.3097
|
25
|
73
|
5
|
276.7
|
|
Boone, Bret
|
340
|
65
|
110
|
0.3235
|
22
|
84
|
2
|
271.5
|
|
Giles, Brian
|
325
|
64
|
109
|
0.3354
|
21
|
55
|
6
|
266.4
|
|
Lawton, Matt
|
317
|
67
|
103
|
0.3249
|
10
|
50
|
17
|
264.9
|
|
Alou, Moises
|
287
|
50
|
104
|
0.3624
|
18
|
65
|
2
|
264.4
|
|
Jones, Chipper
|
305
|
67
|
94
|
0.3082
|
25
|
65
|
5
|
260.2
|
|
Nevin, Phil
|
297
|
57
|
92
|
0.3098
|
21
|
72
|
4
|
242.8
|
|
Cameron, Mike
|
289
|
59
|
80
|
0.2768
|
15
|
58
|
18
|
235.8
|
|
Drew, J.D.
|
218
|
44
|
72
|
0.3303
|
21
|
49
|
6
|
235.3
|
|
Williams, Bernie
|
268
|
58
|
86
|
0.3209
|
15
|
50
|
9
|
234.9
|
|
Green, Shawn
|
336
|
61
|
97
|
0.2887
|
20
|
64
|
9
|
234.7
|
|
Mondesi, Raul
|
340
|
62
|
96
|
0.2824
|
16
|
53
|
16
|
234.4
|
|
Pujols, Albert
|
313
|
51
|
101
|
0.3227
|
21
|
66
|
0
|
227.7
|
|
Ordonez, Magglio
|
306
|
49
|
91
|
0.2974
|
19
|
54
|
11
|
226.4
|
|
Pierre, Juan
|
313
|
55
|
102
|
0.3259
|
1
|
24
|
23
|
224.9
|
|
Jones, Andruw
|
349
|
64
|
96
|
0.2751
|
19
|
58
|
11
|
223.1
|
|
Lee, Carlos
|
291
|
41
|
89
|
0.3058
|
15
|
52
|
13
|
220.8
|
|
Rollins, Jimmy
|
360
|
49
|
98
|
0.2722
|
8
|
38
|
28
|
220.2
|
|
Stewart, Shannon
|
365
|
65
|
118
|
0.3233
|
6
|
35
|
13
|
218.3
|
|
Guzman, Cristian
|
347
|
61
|
107
|
0.3084
|
7
|
34
|
17
|
217.4
|
|
Bagwell, Jeff
|
327
|
66
|
88
|
0.2691
|
21
|
68
|
5
|
211.1
|
|
Giambi, Jason
|
283
|
47
|
91
|
0.3216
|
19
|
60
|
0
|
210.6
|
|
Jeter, Derek
|
343
|
57
|
101
|
0.2945
|
8
|
42
|
17
|
210.5
|
|
Thome, Jim
|
272
|
53
|
79
|
0.2904
|
26
|
64
|
0
|
210.4
|
|
Aurilia, Rich
|
337
|
55
|
120
|
0.3561
|
12
|
38
|
0
|
210.1
|
|
Cruz, Jose
|
278
|
42
|
82
|
0.295
|
11
|
44
|
17
|
207
|
|
Casey, Sean
|
301
|
45
|
99
|
0.3289
|
10
|
61
|
3
|
201.9
|
|
Martinez, Edgar
|
278
|
50
|
84
|
0.3022
|
13
|
67
|
4
|
199.2
|
Now, I had Luis Gonzalez rated as the #3 outfielder going into the draft this year, but this performance is ridiculous! Can he keep it up? Of course not, but hes a quality hitter and his second half numbers should be very good, if not on this pace. Dont dump him unless somebody blows your socks off.
Lance Berkman, on the other hand, is WAY over his head even for Enron Field. Sure, hes a good hitter and may someday win a batting title but not this year. Find an owner you can con, er, convince that Berkman is the second coming of Barry Bonds and trade him now (unless he has keeper value in your league, because hes only going to get better as the years pass).
Ditto Cliff Floyd hes a very good hitter, but not this good. Dont expect him to duplicate his first half numbers. Plus, he always seems to have an injury or two every year, and so far he has been lucky. Expect him to miss some time in the second half. Now would be a good time to trade this all-star outfielder.
My take on some others:
Ichiro Suzuki OK, I was wrong about him. Keep him.
Mike Sweeney Hes finally become consistent, so stick with him.
Roberto Alomar Hes getting older, and fatigue and injuries could be a problem in 2nd half.
Ryan Klesko Trade him now, while you can.
Bobby Abreu hes a comer, and despite a Philly Phade in the 2nd half, hell be solid.
Bret Boone Ive said before, if you can get value, trade him now. But I also expect that hell be a productive player all year because of the team around him.
Matt Lawton Hes not this good, but hell be decent in the 2nd half.
Phil Nevin watch to see if he gets traded if not, his production may drop off.
Albert Pujols Im still not a believer in the rookie. Look for a big drop in the 2nd half.
Juan Pierre steals and runs should be there all year if he can hit .300.
Jimmy Rollins dont count on him.
Cristian Guzman has benefited from Twins general momentum and good team play. If you believe that the Twins will be in the hunt all year, keep him. If not . . .
First Half Under-Achievers
On the down side, here are the bottom dwellers among regular players so far this year:
|
Player
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Johnson, Russ
|
167
|
18
|
46
|
0.2754
|
3
|
22
|
1
|
53.4
|
|
Perry, Herbert
|
189
|
21
|
51
|
0.2698
|
4
|
21
|
1
|
52.8
|
|
Finley, Steve
|
283
|
34
|
66
|
0.2332
|
5
|
33
|
3
|
52.2
|
|
Miller, Damian
|
205
|
25
|
54
|
0.2634
|
5
|
21
|
0
|
49.4
|
|
Alfonzo, Edgardo
|
219
|
31
|
51
|
0.2329
|
9
|
25
|
2
|
48.9
|
|
Gonzalez, Alex
|
289
|
32
|
71
|
0.2457
|
4
|
26
|
2
|
48.7
|
|
Grieve, Ben
|
288
|
32
|
69
|
0.2396
|
6
|
34
|
0
|
48.6
|
|
Stinnett, Kelly
|
140
|
15
|
37
|
0.2643
|
6
|
17
|
2
|
47.3
|
|
Allen, Chad
|
113
|
15
|
32
|
0.2832
|
2
|
14
|
1
|
47.2
|
|
Galarraga, Andres
|
223
|
30
|
52
|
0.2332
|
8
|
30
|
1
|
46.2
|
|
Williams, Matt D.
|
143
|
19
|
38
|
0.2657
|
5
|
21
|
0
|
45.7
|
|
Larkin, Barry
|
156
|
29
|
40
|
0.2564
|
2
|
17
|
3
|
45.4
|
|
Hocking, Denny
|
153
|
21
|
40
|
0.2614
|
1
|
17
|
4
|
43.4
|
|
Paquette, Craig
|
153
|
22
|
37
|
0.2418
|
7
|
24
|
2
|
41.8
|
|
Martinez, Ramon E.
|
186
|
27
|
49
|
0.2634
|
3
|
17
|
0
|
41.4
|
|
Estrada, Johnny
|
145
|
16
|
39
|
0.269
|
3
|
22
|
0
|
41
|
|
Caminiti, Ken
|
197
|
25
|
47
|
0.2386
|
9
|
25
|
0
|
40.6
|
|
Davis, Russ
|
167
|
16
|
43
|
0.2575
|
7
|
17
|
1
|
40.5
|
|
Gibbons, Jay
|
166
|
20
|
39
|
0.2349
|
11
|
27
|
0
|
39.9
|
|
Petrick, Ben
|
153
|
27
|
35
|
0.2288
|
9
|
28
|
1
|
39.8
|
|
Nunez, Abraham O.
|
183
|
18
|
47
|
0.2568
|
0
|
16
|
6
|
39.8
|
|
Anderson, Brady
|
254
|
31
|
52
|
0.2047
|
6
|
29
|
8
|
39.7
|
|
Salmon, Tim
|
252
|
33
|
52
|
0.2063
|
9
|
26
|
5
|
37.3
|
|
Vizcaino, Jose
|
127
|
22
|
34
|
0.2677
|
1
|
5
|
3
|
34.7
|
|
Williams, Gerald
|
236
|
32
|
48
|
0.2034
|
4
|
17
|
11
|
33.4
|
|
Loretta, Mark
|
162
|
18
|
45
|
0.2778
|
0
|
10
|
0
|
30.8
|
|
Cox, Steve
|
169
|
17
|
41
|
0.2426
|
6
|
26
|
0
|
28.6
|
|
Mordecai, Mike
|
123
|
15
|
32
|
0.2602
|
2
|
18
|
1
|
28.2
|
|
Cruz, Deivi
|
210
|
17
|
52
|
0.2476
|
2
|
24
|
2
|
27.6
|
|
Norton, Greg
|
134
|
13
|
33
|
0.2463
|
7
|
22
|
0
|
27.3
|
|
Brogna, Rico
|
204
|
15
|
50
|
0.2451
|
3
|
21
|
3
|
27.1
|
|
Wilson, Jack
|
135
|
15
|
36
|
0.2667
|
2
|
14
|
0
|
26.7
|
|
Ripken, Cal
|
225
|
21
|
54
|
0.24
|
4
|
28
|
0
|
26
|
|
LaRue, Jason
|
184
|
26
|
41
|
0.2228
|
7
|
27
|
1
|
25.8
|
|
Benard, Marvin
|
214
|
35
|
45
|
0.2103
|
5
|
22
|
4
|
23.3
|
|
Barrett, Michael
|
256
|
26
|
62
|
0.2422
|
4
|
18
|
0
|
23.2
|
|
Spiezio, Scott
|
187
|
21
|
44
|
0.2353
|
4
|
21
|
2
|
22.3
|
|
Reboulet, Jeff
|
107
|
21
|
27
|
0.2523
|
2
|
16
|
0
|
20.3
|
|
Matheny, Mike
|
216
|
24
|
52
|
0.2407
|
3
|
20
|
0
|
18.7
|
|
Tatis, Fernando
|
145
|
20
|
37
|
0.2552
|
2
|
11
|
0
|
17.2
|
|
Fryman, Travis
|
103
|
10
|
28
|
0.2718
|
0
|
6
|
1
|
16.8
|
|
Bradley, Milton
|
220
|
19
|
49
|
0.2227
|
1
|
19
|
7
|
16.7
|
|
Bocachica, Hiram
|
118
|
14
|
29
|
0.2458
|
2
|
9
|
4
|
15.8
|
|
Huff, Aubrey
|
215
|
19
|
51
|
0.2372
|
4
|
18
|
0
|
11.2
|
|
Meares, Pat
|
188
|
26
|
44
|
0.234
|
3
|
16
|
0
|
10
|
|
Shumpert, Terry
|
120
|
19
|
27
|
0.225
|
3
|
8
|
6
|
10
|
|
Joyner, Wally
|
148
|
14
|
36
|
0.2432
|
3
|
14
|
1
|
9.2
|
|
Hernandez, Ramon
|
250
|
22
|
56
|
0.224
|
4
|
26
|
0
|
9
|
|
Alomar, Sandy
|
185
|
13
|
45
|
0.2432
|
2
|
17
|
1
|
8.2
|
|
Kreuter, Chad
|
130
|
14
|
33
|
0.2538
|
2
|
8
|
0
|
6.8
|
|
Clayton, Royce
|
207
|
20
|
41
|
0.1981
|
3
|
25
|
6
|
1.1
|
|
Ortiz, Hector
|
133
|
12
|
33
|
0.2481
|
0
|
11
|
1
|
0.1
|
|
Saenz, Olmedo
|
192
|
19
|
44
|
0.2292
|
4
|
14
|
0
|
-0.8
|
|
Martinez, Felix
|
149
|
15
|
35
|
0.2349
|
0
|
8
|
4
|
-1.1
|
|
Truby, Chris
|
120
|
10
|
26
|
0.2167
|
7
|
22
|
1
|
-1.3
|
|
Helms, Wes
|
143
|
17
|
31
|
0.2168
|
5
|
19
|
1
|
-3.2
|
|
Fletcher, Darrin
|
235
|
23
|
47
|
0.2
|
5
|
33
|
0
|
-4
|
|
Zuleta, Julio
|
106
|
11
|
23
|
0.217
|
6
|
24
|
0
|
-5
|
|
Lieberthal, Mike
|
121
|
21
|
28
|
0.2314
|
2
|
11
|
0
|
-5.6
|
|
Lampkin, Tom
|
122
|
18
|
27
|
0.2213
|
5
|
12
|
0
|
-8.7
|
|
Young, Michael
|
125
|
18
|
28
|
0.224
|
2
|
14
|
1
|
-9
|
|
Flaherty, John
|
169
|
11
|
40
|
0.2367
|
1
|
15
|
0
|
-9.3
|
|
Hatteberg, Scott
|
139
|
19
|
32
|
0.2302
|
1
|
13
|
0
|
| |