Taking Stock at the All-Star Break
Take a look at the standings in your roto league. Now, take a look at the roster of the owner who is in first place. Does he have on his team (a) Bret Boone, (b) Ichiro Suzuki, and/or (c) Albert Pujols? If the owner in your league has all three of these guys, then you can chalk up the season to dumb luck. He/she got lucky and picked players who have had unexpectedly great years. What can you do? On the other hand, if the owner in your league who is in first place doesn’t have these guys, then you’ve got no excuse. You are just being out managed.
Two weeks ago, Carlos Beltran hit .478 over 23 at bats, with 5 home runs, 11 RBI, and 9 runs scored. Where was he? On my bench, of course, I chose to go with Brian Jordan, who hit .269/1/5/4. So, being a good manager and wanting to get the hot hand into my lineup, I put Beltran in, and took Jordan out. So, last week, Beltran hit .222 with zero homers, 2 RBI, and 2 runs scored, while in my lineup. Jordan, on the other hand, riding my bench, hit .440 with 3 homers, 9 RBI, and 5 runs. Oy! Sometimes you just can’t win. My pitchers are all injured, so I have absolutely no choice about who should be in my active lineup because I have nobody on my bench who isn’t on the disabled list or in the minors. My hitters, on the other hand, I have plenty of, and each week I have to make decisions about who should be in and who should be out. I inevitably choose incorrectly. That’s why I’m in 6th place rather than 2nd. Want to blame someone for your poor performance in your roto league this year – look the mirror.
And so, at the All-Star break, it’s a good time to take stock of your draft (and any trades you may have made this year) and see whether your problems are that you are a poor judge of talent – or merely a poor manager.
The following players have excelled in the first half. This doesn’t mean that you should run out and trade for them – since second half performance doesn’t necessarily equate to great second half performance. I’ve given you my appraisal of whether I think it’s likely that they’ll continue to excel. On the other hand, I’ve also listed players who have had sub-par 1st halves, and my evaluation of whether you should go out and get them in anticipation of superior performance for the rest of the way. Of course, these are just my opinions. I thought Beltran would stay hot!
First Half Leaders
Using a simple formula for a 5-category roto league (runs + RBI + Home runs times 3 + Steals times 4 + batting average points above .275), here are the leading hitters over the first half:
Player
AB
R
H
BA
HR
RBI
SB
Gonzalez, Luis
330
75
117
0.3545
35
86
1
349.5
Walker, Larry
297
72
102
0.3434
27
83
9
340.4
Berkman, Lance
315
72
115
0.3651
25
79
4
332.1
Floyd, Cliff
313
73
107
0.3419
21
70
12
320.9
Suzuki, Ichiro
386
76
134
0.3472
5
41
28
316.2
Bonds, Barry
259
66
79
0.305
39
73
7
314
Helton, Todd
315
80
99
0.3143
26
84
4
297.3
Guerrero, Vladimir
327
63
107
0.3272
21
67
12
293.2
Gonzalez, Juan
308
61
107
0.3474
23
83
1
289.4
Sweeney, Mike
342
70
114
0.3333
21
65
8
288.3
Alomar, Roberto
310
58
111
0.3581
9
52
17
288.1
Ramirez, Manny
328
60
110
0.3354
26
84
0
282.4
Klesko, Ryan
313
65
93
0.2971
17
75
17
281.1
Abreu, Bobby
315
68
89
0.2825
17
62
23
280.5
Sosa, Sammy
298
72
93
0.3121
29
83
0
279.1
Rodriguez, Alex
339
74
105
0.3097
25
73
5
276.7
Boone, Bret
340
65
110
0.3235
22
84
2
271.5
Giles, Brian
325
64
109
0.3354
21
55
6
266.4
Lawton, Matt
317
67
103
0.3249
10
50
17
264.9
Alou, Moises
287
50
104
0.3624
18
65
2
264.4
Jones, Chipper
305
67
94
0.3082
25
65
5
260.2
Nevin, Phil
297
57
92
0.3098
21
72
4
242.8
Cameron, Mike
289
59
80
0.2768
15
58
18
235.8
Drew, J.D.
218
44
72
0.3303
21
49
6
235.3
Williams, Bernie
268
58
86
0.3209
15
50
9
234.9
Green, Shawn
336
61
97
0.2887
20
64
9
234.7
Mondesi, Raul
340
62
96
0.2824
16
53
16
234.4
Pujols, Albert
313
51
101
0.3227
21
66
0
227.7
Ordonez, Magglio
306
49
91
0.2974
19
54
11
226.4
Pierre, Juan
313
55
102
0.3259
1
24
23
224.9
Jones, Andruw
349
64
96
0.2751
19
58
11
223.1
Lee, Carlos
291
41
89
0.3058
15
52
13
220.8
Rollins, Jimmy
360
49
98
0.2722
8
38
28
220.2
Stewart, Shannon
365
65
118
0.3233
6
35
13
218.3
Guzman, Cristian
347
61
107
0.3084
7
34
17
217.4
Bagwell, Jeff
327
66
88
0.2691
21
68
5
211.1
Giambi, Jason
283
47
91
0.3216
19
60
0
210.6
Jeter, Derek
343
57
101
0.2945
8
42
17
210.5
Thome, Jim
272
53
79
0.2904
26
64
0
210.4
Aurilia, Rich
337
55
120
0.3561
12
38
0
210.1
Cruz, Jose
278
42
82
0.295
11
44
17
207
Casey, Sean
301
45
99
0.3289
10
61
3
201.9
Martinez, Edgar
278
50
84
0.3022
13
67
4
199.2
Now, I had Luis Gonzalez rated as the #3 outfielder going into the draft this year, but this performance is ridiculous! Can he keep it up? Of course not, but he’s a quality hitter and his second half numbers should be very good, if not on this pace. Don’t dump him unless somebody blows your socks off.
Lance Berkman, on the other hand, is WAY over his head – even for Enron Field. Sure, he’s a good hitter and may someday win a batting title – but not this year. Find an owner you can con, er, convince that Berkman is the second coming of Barry Bonds and trade him now (unless he has keeper value in your league, because he’s only going to get better as the years pass).
Ditto Cliff Floyd – he’s a very good hitter, but not this good. Don’t expect him to duplicate his first half numbers. Plus, he always seems to have an injury or two every year, and so far he has been lucky. Expect him to miss some time in the second half. Now would be a good time to trade this “all-star outfielder.”
My take on some others:
Ichiro Suzuki – OK, I was wrong about him. Keep him.
Mike Sweeney – He’s finally become consistent, so stick with him.
Roberto Alomar – He’s getting older, and fatigue and injuries could be a problem in 2nd half.
Ryan Klesko – Trade him now, while you can.
Bobby Abreu – he’s a comer, and despite a Philly Phade in the 2nd half, he’ll be solid.
Bret Boone – I’ve said before, if you can get value, trade him now. But I also expect that he’ll be a productive player all year because of the team around him.
Matt Lawton – He’s not this good, but he’ll be decent in the 2nd half.
Phil Nevin – watch to see if he gets traded – if not, his production may drop off.
Albert Pujols – I’m still not a believer in the rookie. Look for a big drop in the 2nd half.
Juan Pierre – steals and runs should be there all year if he can hit .300.
Jimmy Rollins – don’t count on him.
Cristian Guzman – has benefited from Twins’ general momentum and good team play. If you believe that the Twins will be in the hunt all year, keep him. If not . . .
First Half Under-Achievers
On the down side, here are the bottom dwellers among regular players so far this year:
Player
AB
R
H
BA
HR
RBI
SB
Johnson, Russ
167
18
46
0.2754
3
22
1
53.4
Perry, Herbert
189
21
51
0.2698
4
21
1
52.8
Finley, Steve
283
34
66
0.2332
5
33
3
52.2
Miller, Damian
205
25
54
0.2634
5
21
0
49.4
Alfonzo, Edgardo
219
31
51
0.2329
9
25
2
48.9
Gonzalez, Alex
289
32
71
0.2457
4
26
2
48.7
Grieve, Ben
288
32
69
0.2396
6
34
0
48.6
Stinnett, Kelly
140
15
37
0.2643
6
17
2
47.3
Allen, Chad
113
15
32
0.2832
2
14
1
47.2
Galarraga, Andres
223
30
52
0.2332
8
30
1
46.2
Williams, Matt D.
143
19
38
0.2657
5
21
0
45.7
Larkin, Barry
156
29
40
0.2564
2
17
3
45.4
Hocking, Denny
153
21
40
0.2614
1
17
4
43.4
Paquette, Craig
153
22
37
0.2418
7
24
2
41.8
Martinez, Ramon E.
186
27
49
0.2634
3
17
0
41.4
Estrada, Johnny
145
16
39
0.269
3
22
0
41
Caminiti, Ken
197
25
47
0.2386
9
25
0
40.6
Davis, Russ
167
16
43
0.2575
7
17
1
40.5
Gibbons, Jay
166
20
39
0.2349
11
27
0
39.9
Petrick, Ben
153
27
35
0.2288
9
28
1
39.8
Nunez, Abraham O.
183
18
47
0.2568
0
16
6
39.8
Anderson, Brady
254
31
52
0.2047
6
29
8
39.7
Salmon, Tim
252
33
52
0.2063
9
26
5
37.3
Vizcaino, Jose
127
22
34
0.2677
1
5
3
34.7
Williams, Gerald
236
32
48
0.2034
4
17
11
33.4
Loretta, Mark
162
18
45
0.2778
0
10
0
30.8
Cox, Steve
169
17
41
0.2426
6
26
0
28.6
Mordecai, Mike
123
15
32
0.2602
2
18
1
28.2
Cruz, Deivi
210
17
52
0.2476
2
24
2
27.6
Norton, Greg
134
13
33
0.2463
7
22
0
27.3
Brogna, Rico
204
15
50
0.2451
3
21
3
27.1
Wilson, Jack
135
15
36
0.2667
2
14
0
26.7
Ripken, Cal
225
21
54
0.24
4
28
0
26
LaRue, Jason
184
26
41
0.2228
7
27
1
25.8
Benard, Marvin
214
35
45
0.2103
5
22
4
23.3
Barrett, Michael
256
26
62
0.2422
4
18
0
23.2
Spiezio, Scott
187
21
44
0.2353
4
21
2
22.3
Reboulet, Jeff
107
21
27
0.2523
2
16
0
20.3
Matheny, Mike
216
24
52
0.2407
3
20
0
18.7
Tatis, Fernando
145
20
37
0.2552
2
11
0
17.2
Fryman, Travis
103
10
28
0.2718
0
6
1
16.8
Bradley, Milton
220
19
49
0.2227
1
19
7
16.7
Bocachica, Hiram
118
14
29
0.2458
2
9
4
15.8
Huff, Aubrey
215
19
51
0.2372
4
18
0
11.2
Meares, Pat
188
26
44
0.234
3
16
0
10
Shumpert, Terry
120
19
27
0.225
3
8
6
10
Joyner, Wally
148
14
36
0.2432
3
14
1
9.2
Hernandez, Ramon
250
22
56
0.224
4
26
0
9
Alomar, Sandy
185
13
45
0.2432
2
17
1
8.2
Kreuter, Chad
130
14
33
0.2538
2
8
0
6.8
Clayton, Royce
207
20
41
0.1981
3
25
6
1.1
Ortiz, Hector
133
12
33
0.2481
0
11
1
0.1
Saenz, Olmedo
192
19
44
0.2292
4
14
0
-0.8
Martinez, Felix
149
15
35
0.2349
0
8
4
-1.1
Truby, Chris
120
10
26
0.2167
7
22
1
-1.3
Helms, Wes
143
17
31
0.2168
5
19
1
-3.2
Fletcher, Darrin
235
23
47
0.2
5
33
0
-4
Zuleta, Julio
106
11
23
0.217
6
24
0
-5
Lieberthal, Mike
121
21
28
0.2314
2
11
0
-5.6
Lampkin, Tom
122
18
27
0.2213
5
12
0
-8.7
Young, Michael
125
18
28
0.224
2
14
1
-9
Flaherty, John
169
11
40
0.2367
1
15
0
-9.3
Hatteberg, Scott
139
19
32
0.2302
1
13
0