Roto World by Dave Diamond

The calendar may say that it’s only June. The All-Star break may be a few weeks away, and you may still be holding out hope for the Mets (despite being 10 games out and 9 games under .500) but as far as your roto team is concerned; you’re done. You are so sick of seeing your players listed on the daily transaction board as “placed on the 15-day disabled list.” You are tired of hearing that your guy is “day to day” with a minor nick. You cringe when the subject of “sore elbow” comes up on SportsCenter. And if that weren’t bad enough, the players who are healthy seem to have a bad habit of going 1-5 with no runs, no RBI, and a caught stealing. You stopped even clicking on the “standings” link on your league’s web site several weeks ago, because you can’t bear to see your team’s name listed in the bottom half of the standings. You’re already starting to work on your draft board for your fantasy football league. It’s over.

Or is it?

There may still be hope. And if there isn’t any hope, there’s always planning for next year.

Let’s start with the hope part. Now, it can’t be that your draft strategy was so very bad that your team was a complete disaster from the start, right? OK, it may seem that way in hindsight, but give yourself some credit. In all likelihood, one of three things have caused you to find yourself in the second division. Two are not fatal. Poor roto performance may be the result of (1) worse than expected performance by established players who have either had minor injuries or just slumped in the first half of the season, (2) the failure of speculative players and/or rookies to live up to their pre-season promise, or (3) significant injuries to irreplaceable players. If you drafted Frank Thomas, Mike Lieberthal, Jeff D’Amico, Kevin Brown, Bill Meuller, and Jay Payton – OK, you’re done. You just can’t replace the production of those players by picking up somebody off the waiver wire, and since your team is already short on big-time talent, it’s hard to trade your way back into contention. Keep reading, though, and we’ll talk about looking forward to next year.

If your team has just under performed, it may not be too late. In my money league, my team was plagued by injuries (including Lieberthal and D’Amico) and poor performances by key players (Jeff Cirillo, Derek Jeter), and was in 11^th place out of 16 teams on May 1. But, a few players started doing better, a few nicked up players came back and played well, and by June 18 I was up to 6^th place and fighting for a spot on the money list. And that was only over the span of 6 weeks. Roto standings can change pretty fast, particularly if the owners ahead of you have had players achieving over their heads early in the year, and who start to come back to Earth, while your players start to come on. Anyone ahead of you who has benefited by superior performances by Phillies pitchers has got to be worried about now. So, how do you tell whether you’re really toast, or should entertain thoughts of a comeback?

Here’s an exercise. Start with your team. Imagine that this is the half way point of the season (it’s really a bit short of that, but close enough). Now, go down the list of your players, one at a time, and make an honest assessment of whether their “first half” stats have been above, below, or right at your expectations. If you did pre-season stat analysis that projected what stats you expected of your players, take half of that number and compare it to actual performance. If you didn’t have pre-season projections of your own, try to get your hands on a copy of one of the pre-season roto publications -- just try to be honest. (Honest, as in double all the numbers and ask yourself whether it’s realistic to expect Luis Gonzalez to hit 60 home runs, or Bret Boone to knock in 140. If you’re not honest, it’s not worth playing. As Roger Debris said: “be brutal, be brutal.”) Now, consider whether injuries that are now behind you contributed to the poor first half performance, or whether there is a physical problem that will likely continue to inhibit your players. Then, consider whether the team on which the guy plays has been over-achieving or under-achieving in the first half. Teams like Philadelphia and Minnesota played over their heads early on, and every member of the team benefited from that. Pitchers had more wins, hitters had more RBI, runs, etc. Those teams are bound to fall to Earth eventually, and the entire team will probably be hurt. On the other hand, teams like Houston and the Mets, who slumped early, are bound to have a few hot streaks during the year – and they will occur late. Teams like Pittsburgh can only go up.

Having made that assessment, try to project for each stat category for your guys how much better (or worse) they are likely to be in the second half. Don’t go crazy and project 50 more RBI in the second half for Todd Ziele, but realistically he has to have at least 10-15 more than in the first half. He’s just GOT to. Then, add up the plus or minus for your entire team projected over the second half of the season. If your projection comes out in the minus column, and you’re already in the bottom half of your league standings -- OK, you’re toast, and you can proceed to part 2 of this article. If your number is a plus, then go to your standings. Take your projected plus (or minus) number in each stat category and increase (or decrease) your team’s number by that amount. Does that move you up in the standings for that category? Keep track of each plus or minus number in the standings. (Example: if you are in 8^th place out of 12 teams with 126 home runs, and you project your team with +20 home runs in the second half, then give yourself 146 for home runs. If 146 would be 6^th place, then you are +2 for that category.) Add up your total for all stat categories (plus and minus) and then look at the overall standings. Add your total “plus” number to your current total standings number and see where that would place you. If your projected number places you in the money – then you’re not out of it. If you play as projected, and everyone else plays the same (or worse) you’ve still got time to catch up. Congratulations! Go out and make a trade to improve your team. Start paying attention to the pitching rotations and manage your tail off to try to move up.

You might also take a quick look at the teams in front of you. Are any of them loaded with over-achievers who are likely to falter? Are they buoyed by the performances of Twins and Phillies? Do they have players who have played virtually all the games in the first half without injuries? They may come back to the pack, so keep hope alive.

Of course, if your analysis tells you that even with your projected second half numbers, you still land a far shout away from pay dirt, then unless you are very optimistic about your players having monster second halves, maybe it is time to pack it in.

So, you really are ready to give up?

I must first say a word about roto ethics. Remember, folks, that it’s not just about you and your team. It’s about the league. If the league you are in is to maintain any degree of integrity, it is important that all owners pay attention to their teams and manage like they mean it. It’s the same in the big leagues. Suppose you were a GM on a team that was 20 games out of first place in September. If you had a starter go down with an injury, would you just tell your field manager to play the games with a 24-man roster? If you were the field manager, would you send out 8 guys to play a game? Well, in roto, don’t just ignore your team and let your roster go to pot. If you have a injury – replace the guy. If you have a pitcher that was sent to the minors, put someone else in. If you tank your team, the league suffers because your team’s performance affects the standings for all the other owners. If you are in 6^th place in RBI when your top two sluggers get hurt and you decide it’s time to focus on the NFL and don’t bother to make a roster move to put in your eligible reserves, or pick up somebody off the waiver wire, then the teams behind you in RBI will catch and pass you, which might end up hurting another fellow owner’s chances of winning. To be fair and maintain the proper competition level in your league, don’t fall asleep at the switch. (An idea: if you are sick of managing your team, find a friend who wants to try their hand at roto and turn the team over to him or her.) Your fellow owners will respect you more if you don’t just drop out of sight.

One way to stay in the game is to start thinking about next year. If you’re in a keeper league (and assuming that your league’s trade deadline hasn’t already passed) now would be the time to think about trading away your remaining productive talent to acquire players who you can keep for next year. Just as major league GMs start thinking about dumping high-priced players at the July 31 trading deadline, and contending teams are willing to trade future talent for a chance to “win now,” so too roto owners may think about “dumping.” Now, dumping has gotten a bad reputation, possibly because of some ugly situations where owners have gotten together and colluded in order to help the chances of a buddy. Hopefully, your league has some kind of anti-collusion rule that would allow the commissioner, or the other owners acting together, to void a deal that is patently an attempt to bolster one team without significantly benefiting the other. There may also have been past situations where owners have dumped players and then dropped out of the league – something not likely to happen in the real world. These are significant considerations, but in a stable league where you have confidence that owners are in it for the long haul, there is nothing fundamentally wrong with running a “fire sale” and loading up on prospects. If you’re going to do that, don’t wait until you are right up against your trading deadine – do it as early as you reasonably think you are out of contention – while there are more potential trading partners available, and before our fellow owners get the same idea.

So, what do you do? First (obviously) identify the players on your current roster who have value for next year. In my money league, for example, I’ve got Roy Oswalt, who certainly has value for this year, and since he was a 31^st round draft pick, he has a lot of value for next year. If I were dumping, I wouldn’t trade him, since it would defeat the whole point (building for next year). Figure out which of your players are “untouchable” because they have keeper value for you. Everyone else is on the block.

Next, scan the rosters of your likely trading partners. The teams in second place down to any other team within a reasonable distance of the money positions in your league are your most likely partners. (Sometimes you can trade with the guy in first place, if he’s worried or has a key injury, but in general league leaders aren’t interested in dealing much). Look at their rosters for two things – what you’ve got that they might want, and what they have for keepers that you might want to acquire. This would also be a good time to drag out your notes from the auction if you held and auction-style draft. Did you record the name of the owner who was the next highest bidder on your players? (I told you do to that in a pre-draft column. Aren’t you paying attention??) Those owners must “like” your guys, and they are probably still interested in acquiring them. Identify your objectives, and hit the telephone.

Of course, there are two approaches you can take here. The first is the “going out of business sale” method, where you announce to the entire league that all your players are up for grabs and that you’re looking to dump this year’s talent for next year’s prospects. The advantage here is that you may get more offers, and you will avoid complaints from some owners that they were blind-sided by a trade that you made without having the chance to make you a better offer. Since owners who are hurt by a trade may hate you later for “helping the other guy,” this method has some appeal.

On the other hand, announcing that you are dumping talent gives away some of your bargaining power, since your trading partners know that you have given up on this season and that you will probably take less in a deal just to get something to keep for next year. If you keep your cards close to the vest, you may find yourself in a trade discussion that starts out with only “current” value players, but you allow it to evolve in the direction you really want – toward prospects. For example, when your prospective trading partner inquires about whether your best pitcher is available, you could casually say “I’d only trade him if I were packing it in for the season and just looking to trade for next year. I’m not sure I want to do that, but just supposing I were interested, would you consider giving me back . . .” Now you know that the other owner is really interested in your guy, and you can take the posture that he’ll have to really bowl you over with great prospects to “convince you” to give up on this year already. Of course, when the trade is announced, everyone will know that you are now “officially” dumping, but that first deal may turn out to be your best.

And, whom should you target? Well, without talking about specific names, you may want to try to load up on young pitching, or target next year’s possible closers, or focus on “thin” offensive positions. All of that is great, but in particular, think about:

* Playing time. Does your prospect have a starting job for next year, or is he currently filling in for an injured veteran who will come back next year and reclaim his position? Without playing time, your prospect won’t be worth much.

* Team’s direction. Is your prospect on a second-division team that is in a rebuilding mode, where the rookie is likely to get plenty of opportunity to develop even if he slips up a few times, or is he on a contending team where they may get impatient with him and bring in a proven veteran for next year?

* Age. Is your prospect 22 and an up-and-coming star, or is he 28 and after 7 years in the minors finally having a career year?

* Trade potential. Has your kid’s name come up in trade rumors? If so, he might well be on a different team next year. (Two words, Ricky Ledee!)

* Sophomore jinx. If your target is a rookie this year and you’re figuring that next year he’s a lock to do at least as well – think again. (Two more words: Barry Zito.) There really is a problem with rookies coming back strong. Sure, it happens, but look at the guy’s underlying numbers, rather than his 2001 major league performance. Was he a star at AAA? If not, he may be a flash in the pan, rather than a bona fide star in training.

So, go out. Build next year’s pitching staff. Lock up a young shortstop. Grab that guy who will be next year’s closer. Put together a roster that will allow you to go into next year feeling good about your team. Doing so will also help you keep your head in the game for the rest of this year – because you are following the progress of your future stars.

Some names to consider in this quest for fire-power:

Josh Beckett – SP – Fla. Despite all the good young pitchers in the Florida organization, this kid’s a lock to be in the major leagues – either in Miami or elsewhere after a trade. He has power and control, and his performance at every level has been outstanding. He was recently promoted to AA, and has done well. Since he’s not likely to make a big impact at the major league level this year, even in September, you might find an owner willing to part with him for a player who can help this year.

Adam Dunn—OF – Cin. Power hitting outfielders aren’t exactly a dime-a-dozen, but here’s one who may be a real power source you can get this year. He’s at AAA now, and may get a September call-up, but otherwise you’re looking at next year.

Alex Escobar – OF – Mets. He’s already been called up twice this year, and is constantly involved in trade rumors, but figure that the kid will be at the major league level somewhere next year. Being traded away from the Mets isn’t a bad thing, since he’s a natural center fielder, and Jay Payton may block his progress in New York.

Matt Anderson – RP –Det. The rumors that Todd Jones will be traded probably mean that Anderson owners are not going to want to part with him, since he may end up being the closer this year, but if his owner in your league isn’t willing to take that chance, I’d scoop him up. Even as a set-up man, his numbers are impressive. A Trevor Hoffman for Matt Anderson deal isn’t crazy.

Bud Smith – SP – Stl. Powerful lefty with unlimited potential. Yes, I know that we all thought that about Rick Ankiel, but he’s worth a risk.

Marquis Giles – 2B – Atl. Brian’s younger brother is definitely worth a look, especially with Quilvio Veras not playing up to expectations in Atlanta. Power hitting second basemen aren’t easy to find.

Mo Vaughn – 1B – Ana. Don’t forget about players like Vaughn, who are out for the season, but who are likely to come back strong next year. Since his injury occurred in the spring, he probably has keeper value for next year, which an owner might be willing to trade this year.

Roy Oswalt – SP – Hou. It’s probably too late to pick up Oswalt, since he’s doing so well at the major league level already, but if you can get him – go for it.

Mark Little – OF – Col. He made a big splash early this season filling in for an injured Larry Walker. If Colorado can find some space for him in the outfield next year, he’ll be worth an investment now.

Mark Prior – SP – Cubs. Only truly inspired owners would have drafted Prior, who was only half-way through his senior year at Stanford on draft day. But, after being the first overall pick in the amateur draft, it looks like he’ll be in the major leagues by next year. If someone has him in your league, he’s not worth a lot this year, but to you for next year, he’s a gold mine.

There are lots of others. The main thing is to hold out for good, top-quality prospects when dealing your veterans now. If you really must abandon the season so early, at least have some fun with it!

Note to readers: I’ll be on vacation (checking out some new ball parks!) for the next two weeks. Happy Independence day! Look for the next column around July 9.