Roto World by Dave Diamond

Baseball trades are no different than stock trades. Buy low, sell high. If you have Bret Boone on your team, you should be thinking Sell, Sell, Sell. (It can’t last.) If you have Brad Radke, his peak value has come and gone – you should have dumped him two weeks ago. Of course, it’s easy to kick yourself for not making a deal sooner. What is tougher is predicting in advance who will get better, and who will tank.

So, two weeks ago, I made the decision that my lineup needed more power. Plus, I needed a catcher since Mike Lieberthal was out for the season. So, how am I going to get more power and a top catcher? You’ve got to give to get, and what I had to give was my ace starter, Kevin Brown. Now, at the time, Brown was leading the NL in ERA, was second in strikeouts, and had one of the best WHIP ratios in baseball. He was probably the third best pitcher in the majors. He is a stud, and was pitching like one. He surely would get me some action.

At first, I really wasn’t looking to trade him, but during a conversation with a fellow owner about some other players, his name came up. We were talking about Javy Lopez and Darrin Erstad for Brown and my back-up catcher. But I wondered if that were enough. Couldn’t I get more than that for Brown? So, I made a few more inquiries to other owners. I started by scanning the standings in my league and identifying the teams that had poor pitching stats and good hitting stats – meaning that the owner would fee that he had hitting to spare and needed a stud pitcher. Then, I cross-referenced that list against teams who were low in the standings in steals, since I had excess speed in my outfield, and wanted to trade speed for power. There were two matches. Of those two teams, one had no catcher who I was interested in. The other owner had Mike Piazza.

Now, Piazza was not hitting. He was in the worst slump of his career. As a Mets fan, I knew this keenly, and I knew that the other owner knew also. His stock was down. But, he was a first round draft choice (as was Brown). In fact, Piazza was drafted higher than Brown in my draft. Would I do Brown for Piazza straight up? Well, that question was a bit moot since I knew I would have to send back a catcher to replace Piazza. So, would Brown plus my current catcher (Mike Matheny) for Piazza be a good trade? Would it get me enough power? I wanted to do better.

I suggested that I could afford to give up a speedy outfielder like Tom Goodwin, plus Brown, plus Matheny, but I would need to get back a serviceable pitcher to replace Brown in my rotation, and I wanted to get an outfielder with some pop to replace Goodwin’s speed. He offered Tim Salmon. Now Salmon’s stock was also down. He was off to his usual slow start. Salmon also has a history of injury, although he hasn’t been injured this year yet (seriously). But I like Salmon. He usually has at least one really hot streak every year, and if you can get him into your lineup when he’s hot, he can really boost your offense. I really could afford to give up some speed in exchange for power. I told him I’d take Salmon and we’d talk about the pitcher.

Now, the trade looked very good for me. Brown and Goodwin and Matheny for Piazza, Salmon, and one of his pitchers. (I really didn’t figure that he was going to give me a pitcher that was worth anything, so this player would just be a throw-in because our league rules require a fixed roster of 40 players, so you can’t make a 3-for-2 trade without one owner having too many players on his roster.) Of course, my dealing partner also figured that the trade now looked too good for me and not good enough for him. Sure, Brown is great, but he’s giving up a lot. So, he upped the ante and suggested that instead of Goodwin, he wanted Chuck Knoblauch. Now, Knobby is a very valuable player in my league because he qualifies at second base as well as in the outfield. Plus, he’s having a good year, stealing bases, scoring runs, etc. So, as between Goodwin and Knoblauch, Knobby is a significant step up. Now I’m not sure about this trade.

But I need a catcher, and there’s none better than Piazza. I need power, and the combination of Piazza and Salmon would really help me. How can I even out the deal? I tell him that I’ll give up Knoblauch, but if I do I need to get back from him a pitcher who has some value – not just a throw-in guy. He had a guy who was not having a good year so far, despite having a great arm and being highly regarded. I figure the kid has some good games in him, and could help me. So I ask him to give me Matt Clement. Now the trade is Piazza, Salmon, and Clement for Brown, Matheny, and Knoblauch. It’s a classic roto deal. Speed and pitching in exchange for power and defensive position (catcher). We both could improve our teams. He says he’ll think about it. I say I’ll think about it. A day later, we both say yes. It’s a done deal.

How it all turns out must await the end of the season. If we both finish low in the standings, it won’t have mattered. As of now, though, I’m pretty happy with the deal. Piazza has broken out of his slump and hit 6 home runs in his last 11 games. Salmon has hit several home runs and looks to be getting hot. Clement has pitched reasonably well. On his side, Knoblauch has continued to play well, but Brown had two bad starts, and then went on the 15-day disabled list. Now, he’ll probably come back and pitch well, but at the moment, you have to think that I did pretty well.

Sell high.

Who are some other players that you should be looking at who have low value now and might be had:

Edgardo Alfonzo – his early season troubles were caused mainly by his bad back. He appears to be healthy now, so expect him to get back to his career level.

Jason Kendall – he’s having a decent year, but the team is doing so badly, that his numbers have been held back. Expect the Bucs to play better in the second half (they’re already out of the race, but they do well in garbage games) and for Kendall’s numbers to perk up.

Carl Everett – he hasn’t had his hot streak yet.

Ken Griffey – just wait.

Bernie Williams – his two stints away from the team to care for his terminally ill father hurt him, but now he’s back and appears focused. He’ll hit big.

And if you have any of these guys, you might figure that their value is peaking, and this would be a good time to sell:

Bret Boone – his stock cannot get higher. If you can find a taker, give him up. If he goes on to drive in 150 runs, blame me.

Albert Pujols – Sure, he’ll be rookie of the year, but his second half cannot match his start. If you can’t save him into next year, think about dealing him now before he starts to slump.

Rich Aurilia – I doubt that you will find anyone who truly believes that Aurlia is going to win the batting title and will give you Larry Walker for him, but if you have an owner in your league who needs a shortstop, now would be the time to dangle.

Joe Mays – He’s doing it with mirrors. If you can convince a fellow owner that his WHIP is going to stay closer to 1.0 than to 1.4 for the rest of the season, you’ve got yourself a buyer.

Aaron Sele – If you can get the deal done before his start at Coors Field, go for it. In any event, the Mariners are bound to come at least slightly back to Earth, and Sele is a prime candidate to go sub-.500 for the rest of the season with a WHIP in the 1.5 neighborhood and an ERA to match. He is peaking.