Roto World by Dave Diamond

They were the words that I had dreaded. Sure, I knew when I drafted him that he had missed most of last season with an arm injury. But all the reports said that he was fully recovered, and even that the rest had done him good. He was throwing well. He was striking people out. He had saved 13 of 14 opportunities - albeit some of them not entirely clean. But I was counting on him. Then, during Sunday's telecast of the Mets game, came the news flash: "Billy Wagner left the game in Houston today in the 9th inning with an undisclosed arm injury." Ouch. Now what am I gonna do??

No matter what kind of fantasy baseball league you are in, if you have “Saves” as a stat category, then there are only a few players in all of baseball who will get you significant points for Saves. Unlike all other categories, where virtually your entire lineup will score you some points (OK, maybe Mike Piazza isn’t likely to steal you many bases), only a “closer” can really get you saves. Sure, some set-up men will get you 5 or 6 in the year – and therefore their roto value is inflated – but to really rack up points, you need the closer on a team that wins a lot of close games. If you’ve got Sasaki, you’re in first place. If you’ve got Roberto Hernandez, you’re struggling. (If you are relying on Armando Benitez, you’re pulling out your hair.) If your closer goes down, you are in big trouble.

However, there is a solution to this terrible problem. I, you see, was smart at my draft this year, and I drafted Mike Jackson, knowing that Jackson would probably become the closer for Houston in the event that Wagner got injured. In past years, I have not been so smart, and I’ve suffered. (I also have Roberto Hernandez on my team, and Doug Henry.)

At this point in the season, it should be pretty clear which set-up man on each team is pitching well, and would become the closer in the event that the current closer gets injured. You should know who these players are, since you have been following your closer, and you must have noticed who the pitcher is who sets him up most of the time, and who the pitcher is who has stolen a save from you here or there when the manager has decided to “rest” your guy. If you know who that guy is – trade for him now. (If he’ a Free Agent, and if your league permits you to just acquire him, then what are you waiting for?) It’s an insurance policy. Unless you have some league rule that limits your ability to have a “reserve squad” there is no reason not to back up your closers. Closers are unique among players in roto in that the guy who picks up for him will be almost as valuable as the #1 guy. When an outfielder gets hurt, a backup may come in, but the likelihood is that if that guy was all that great, he would have been playing more often in the first place. Even if he plays regularly, his numbers are probably not going to match the guy who he replaced. But when a middle man takes over as the team’s “acting closer,” he is likely to produce about the same number of saves as the closer he replaced. This is especially true when the closer-in-waiting is himself a former closer for another team, who has experience in the role and can handle the pressure.

If you are holding a middle man who is the closer-in-waiting for somebody else’s closer, you can either hang on to him, hoping that the other guy will get hurt and your guy will become valuable, or you can trade him to the owner who has the team’s current closer, on the theory that it is an insurance policy for the other guy. Which option is more valuable, of course, depends on whether the other guy does get hurt or not. If you don’t have the back-up for your closer, I recommend making the trade now. Pitch it to the other owner as a minor deal, just in case, and not really worth much, but worth doing. Offer him some real value, but not a front-line player. Even if you don’t actually complete the trade, you will have made contact and set the stage for future discussions if that owner ever finds himself needing something that you have to offer, or if you ever really need his guy (because your guy did get injured). Of course, if you wait until your guy gets hurt, it will cost you much more to acquire his guy, who is now the interim closer.

Now, I won’t insult your intelligence by pretending that I know more about your closers and your set-up men than you do. If you own a closer, you must already know everything there is to know about the set-up men on his team. But, just for my own exercise, here are my reads on each team’s closer and closer-in-waiting situations:

National League:

Atlanta: Rocker has been remarkably stable – so far. If I owned him, I’d make sure I had Kerry Lightenberg in reserve for when he blows up. Bobby Cox might tend to spread out the save opportunities, and Remlinger might steal a few from Lightenberg, but figure that Lightenberg would get 80% of the opportunities if Rocker breaks down.

Florida: Alfonseca has faltered some this year, but mostly just because of a lack of chances. Tony Perez doesn’t seem to have any different philosophy about his closer than Boles had, but Braden Looper has been very impressive and likely will be somebody’s closer in the near future. Armando Almanza may get some lefty chances, but my money would be on Looper to be the guy if Alfonseca goes down.

Montreal: With many rumors that Uggie Urbina will be traded, Scott Strickland figures to be very valuable after July 31. Guerrmo Mota has been dubbed the closer of the future, and might sneak in some chances.

New York: Probably little chance that Benitez will be replaced absent an injury. John Franco, the all-time lefty saves leader is the clear closer-in-waiting here.

Philadelphia: Mesa was supposed to be a middle man, but became the closer. If he gets hurt, Larry Bowa may well split chances between Ricky Botallico (who has been a closer) and Wayne Gomes (who was the closer for them last year when Brantley was down). Hard to call which would get more chances.

Chicago: Is it even possible to call Tom Gordon the closer? Jeff Fassero did so well at the start of the season that he would certainly get the call again. Gordon owners who don’t already have Fasssero should trade for him now, when it is possible to get him.

Cincinnati: Danny Graves is young, and has never been injured, and seems pretty durable. Scott Sullivan would appear to be the guy you want as the back up.

Houston: Jackson. (Please, God, let it be Jackson!!)

Milwaukee: Curt Leskanic does not excite many people, but he’s at least average so far. Who would take over if he goes down? Juan Acevedo is one option,

Pittsburgh: Mike Williams has never impressed me, but what other options are there? Rick Loiselle was the closer before he got hurt in ’98, so he might be called on simply based on experience, but it’s a crap shoot here. (Williams owners – if you know better, please email me and let me know.)

St. Louis: Dave Veres never seems to be solid, yet Lasorta never seems to go away from him. Who would be the closer if Veres goes down? Probably a committee that might include Mike James, Alan Benes, and probably some minor leaguer that I don’t even know about. (Could Rick Ankiel close?)

Arizona: No need to speculate here about what would happen if Matt Mantai got hurt.

Colorado: Jose Jimenez seems to be the guy, but may be the worst choice among all possible closers. Who is the closer-in-waiting here? I guess Gabe White, but his role has been more of a lefty specialist, and he might not be asked to close when the opposition is sending up primarily right handed batters in the ninth. White is no certainly.

Los Angeles: Jeff Shaw leads the league in saves. Should he falter, it’s not clear whether Terry Adams or Mike Fetters would get the call. Unless you can get both of them, your insurance policy may need updating later.

San Diego: Don’t count on Trevor Hoffman getting hurt. If he does, I see a committee forming. (Hoffman owners, please enlighten me.)

San Francisco: Rob Nen has been hurt in the past, but seems pretty solid. Felix Rodriguez would be the man, so get him.

American League:

Baltimore: Ryan Kohlmeier qualifies as “cautiously optimistic.” Would Alan Mills fill in if he was out?

Boston: Recent patterns suggests that Rod Beck will not only get a few saves along the way when Lowe is healthy, but is clearly the man if Lowe goes down.

New York: Mariano Rivera has never shown signs of being brittle. However, if he were to falter, I would expect either Mike Stanton or Ramiro Mendoza to step in. If Mendoza is in the rotation, then Stanton (who was the closer for Atlanta a million years ago) would step in.

Tampa Bay: The closer situation in Tampa has been unsettled all year. I guess Estaban Yan is the closer for now, although with only 7 saves as a staff, there’s slim pickings. With Tanyon Sturtze in the rotation now, it is very uncertain who would step in and closer if Yan falters. But then again, who would notice?

Toronto: Billy Koch is pretty solid. Kelvim Escobar is nasty when he’s on, and I would expect him to step in if Koch can’t go.

Cleveland: Bob Wickman? Better have Paul Shuey in reserve. Steve Karsay might sneak a few, but Shuey has been good this year as a set-up man and is the logical choice.

Chicago: Foulke is pretty solid. Bob Howrey would be a good insurance policy.

Detroit: Todd Jones was great last year, but shakey this year, although he does not appear to be in danger of losing his job. Matt Anderson is clearly the heir apparent.

Minnesota: LaTroy Hawkins was a big question mark coming into the season. Now, he’s money in the bank. If he goes down, are we looking at Eddie Guardato? Probably, but Bob Wells might get a few also.

Kansas City: I have Hernandez. He was acquired in the off season so that Kansas City would not blow late leads like last year. It hasn’t worked. If you, like me, have Hernandez as a closer, make sure you have Doug Henry in reserve.

Anaheim: Troy Percival has brittle personified, although he appears so far this year to be healthy again. (Yea, and I figured that Billy Wagner was healthy again.) Shigatosi Hasagawa figures to be the main guy, but Lou Pote looks impressive and may be the closer of the future in Anaheim.

Oakland: It’s a sore point for all Mets fans that Jason Isringhausen was traded away for Billy Taylor. Ouch. If Izzy goes down, who fills in?? Can’t tell here. Any ideas?

Seattle: Sasaki is solid, but Nelson would be good insurance here. Arthur Rhodes might get some chances against lefties, and Lou Pinella has been known to use a committee concept (remember the “nasty boys?”)

Texas: Ah, for the days of John Wetteland. Is Crabtree still the closer? With Zimmerman on the shelf, Jeff Brantley, who is a former closer, would most likely step in.

If you want to look even deeper, there may be a few guys in the minor leagues who could get the call-up if there were a closer emergency. Shawn Sonnier for Kansas City, Neal Frendling for Tampa, and Craig House in Colorado are probably the closest to getting a shot.

The Point is that all closers are just a “pop” away from going down, and if you are counting on finishing high in your league’s saves standings, make sure that your back-side is covered in case of a sudden change in status!