So, Your Pitching Staff Sucks . . .
It's only the third week of the season, but already your pitching staff sucks. You are near the bottom of your league's standings in all the pitching categories, and you're starting to panic. Don't. Take a deep breath, and ask yourself these questions?
1. Did you draft guys who are the #1, #2, or #3 starters for decent teams?
2. Did your starters have good seasons last year?
3. Did your relievers have good numbers at the end of last year?
4. Are your negative numbers influenced by injuries?
5. Did the bad outings of your pitchers come against teams who were in the playoffs last year?
If you answered "no" to more than three of the above questions - OK, go ahead and panic. You did a lousy job of drafting, and your team is doomed unless you make some trades. Otherwise, relax already.
Early season pitching performances are NOT - repeat NOT - necessarily an indication that your staff sucks. At this stage of the season, with only 20 or 25 innings pitched, one bad inning when a pitcher gave up a bloop single, a broken bat Texas leaguer, and a bad pitch home run (3 earned runs) can turn an ERA of 2.45 into 3.68, and can turn 3.68 into 4.90. Don't get too worked up about the fact that some other owner has drafted no-name pitchers who have compiled a 2.52 ERA over their first 100 cumulative innings. Things tend to even out over time here. If you own Roberto Hernandez and his 18.32 ERA and his 3.69 WHIP, don't trade him now. You'll get little value for him, and he's bound to improve.
Every pitcher (except Pedro, and maybe Maddux) will have that occasional bad outing. Even Randy Johnson gave up 7 earned runs in one outing this season. Hey, it happens. Does that mean that Eric Milton is a better pitcher than Randy Johnson? No. Don't trade Johnson for Milton. And don't trade Al Leiter for Milton, or Bartolo Colon, or any other pitcher you rated far better when the season began. It's way to early for that. A few starts, some in bad weather, do not indicate the season-long worth of a pitcher. One or two bad outings by a closer early in the season does not mean that he's lost it and you should dump him. Remember, you're not going to get a lot of value back in a trade for somebody who is off to a bad start.
Here's the quiz to determine whether to junk a current pitcher:
1. Is he walking a lot more hitters than in past years - by more than 2 per 9 innings?
2. Has he allowed a lot of hits, as opposed to his runs being scored on home runs?
3. Have his outings been very short, compared to his average last year - by more than 2 full innings per start?
4. Are his strikeouts per 9 innings down by more than 2?
5. Has he pitched regularly (either every 5th day for a starter, or every available save opportunity for a closer)?
6. Is his opponents' batting average against more than .100 points higher than last year?
If you answered "yes" to 4 out of the above 6 questions, then you may have a serious problem, but even then, it may just be a few bad outings. If you answered "no" to 3 or more of the six, then relax and don't get too trade-happy.
DD
Previous columns:
04/21/2001 - The Art of the Deal - Making Roto Trades
04/11/2001 - Draft Day Post Mortum
03/28/2001 - Diamonds in the Rough - Draft Day Sleepers
03/20/2001 - Ranking the Players - Part 1: Hitters
03/16/2001 - Strategy for your Roto Auction
03/10/2001 - Strategy for Your Roto Draft
03/02/2001 - Evaluating Players and Statistics - The Key to Winning Roto
02/22/2001 - Preparing for your Fantasy Draft
02/12/2001 - Rotisserie® Baseball - What is it, and why should I play?