The Art of the Deal - Making Roto Trades
My Father-in-law used to say that he always wanted the Mets to trade Ed Kranepool and Art Shamsky for Johnny Bench and Pete Rose. And the Reds wouldn't go for it?? Go figure. If you listen to sports talk radio, hang out in an on-line chat room for baseball fans, or if you and your buddies discuss how to improve your team around the proverbial water cooler, you have heard some trade "proposals" that are pretty far out. Sure, they would help your team, but why in the world would the other guy make that deal? I suppose it is possible that the other guy is an idiot, but major league General Managers generally don't get to that position if they are idiots.
Now, in a fantasy league, it's possible that you do have some owners who are, shall we say, not the longest bat in the rack. I once was in a league were one owner would be on the telephone incessantly, trying to get me to make deals that I considered not even close to being value-for-value. Although I turned him down, he was able to get other owners to make some of these deals. In the post-mortem process after the season, some of them would admit that they got "talked into" the deal - or that they had made the deal just to shut the guy up and stop him from calling. Such stories, however, are not the norm.
If you want to make a deal, here are my best tips:
1. Pick up the telephone. In the age of email, it is far too simple to send a message to another owner to propose a trade. Some on-line commissioner services even have functions to automatically propose a trade to another owner via email. Don't do it. Part of the fun of being a fantasy GM is having the conversation with another GM about a trade. Being able to quickly counter your colleague's initial concerns about a deal, or being able to "pitch" your deal live (if not in person) is both an enjoyable part of the process, and also much more effective. Trade proposals over email just don't cut it. Of course, if you want to follow up a telephone conversation (or better yet, a discussion over beers at the local sports bar) with an email enclosing stats for the players involved, or an article praising your guy, that's fine. But if you want to close a deal, there's nothing like putting someone under the gun on the phone.
2. Don't try to make a trade based on what you need -- make the trade based on what the other guy needs. Figure out what you have to spare, then look at the roster of the other teams (often available on line for leagues run by web-based services) and figure out which other owners might need what you've got to sell. See what they've got that you might want, and come to the table talking to the owner about how you can make THEM a deal that will benefit THEM. Opening a conversation with "You've got Robin Ventura and I need a better third baseman - what do you want for him?" is a sure way to blow a deal. Instead, start the conversation with "Tough break about Bennie Agbayani getting hurt. Looks like you could use a spare outfielder, and I happen to have a good one." Now you've got the other GM's attention.
3. Don't lead with the guy you really want. In most deals, there will be lots of discussion about alternatives before you settle on the players who will actually be involved. Unless you are ready to blow the other GM away with an offer that is clearly tipped in his favor, don't start out by identifying the player that you really want. If you do, you give up bargaining leverage. In some cases, you can ask for a player who is better than the guy you really want, and when that idea gets shot down, you can "reluctantly" agree to talk about the "lesser" guy - whom you really wanted all along. In other cases, you can talk about a different position altogether, then when that doesn't pan out, you can switch to an alternative idea - the guy you really want. In either case, the other GM doesn't feel like he has given you the guy you really wanted (even though he has) and he'll likely not try to hold you up for excessive value.
4. Be Fair. Ask yourself if you would make the deal if it were the other way around, and don't bother asking if the answer is "no." Comparing pitching to hitting is tough, but look at where people were drafted. Don't offer your 28th round pick in exchange for the other guy's 9th round pick, or a player you got for $2 in exchange for someone the other guy bought for #20. Obviously, he valued the guy that highly on draft day, so whether you think he's that good, the other guy certainly does. Any chance you have to make a fair deal will be blown if you gain a reputation as someone who always wants to get the better of a deal. Remember, the best deals are those that benefit both teams. If the other GM doesn't feel that he's improving his team, why should he do it? If you're offering someone from your reserve squad, don't ask for the other guy's starter. If you're offering your #4 pitcher, don't ask for the other guy's ace.
5. Propose trades that fill a specific need. If an owner has had an injury and now needs a particular position, that's a good time to talk trade (obviously). Pay attention ot the injury reports for all teams, not just yours. If someone is out a week, talking trade isn't worth the effort. If, however, he's out for months, then the other owner might be desperate. Beyond that, consider what you have that will potentially help another owner in a particular category. Suppose you've got a guy on your bench who stole 5 bases last week. Look at the standings to see who's near the bottom of the pile in steals. Look at their roster to see if they've got someone who is a stolen base guy, but who is injured, or just not producing, or whether the owner just never drafted a steals guy. Now -- offer up your guy and pitch the deal as a way for the owner to move up in that category.
6. Bring some meat to the table. Prepare some statistical analysis to support your offer. Don't just extol the virtues of your guys -- have the stats for the last two weeks, last month, or last year to show the other GM that he is not valuing your guy highly enough. Comparative stats can also show that a trade is relatively fair. Many web sites can do this for you in an "evaluate trade" page. Show the other GM how having your guy will boost their team's steals, homers, RBI, WHIP, etc. Compare your strikeout pitcher's numbers over an "average" 20-start stretch to someone the other GM is using in his lineup. If your guy could give him 50 more strikeouts, then show last year's standings and see that a 50-strikeout improvement would mean moving up 4 places in the standings for that category, and thus a 4-point improvement in the overall standings. Such analysis makes it easier for the other guy to pull the trigger on a trade with some comfort that he's getting value.
7. Opposites attract. If your looking for a hitter, chances are that the other guy will want a pitcher. It just works out that way. Owners who have hitting to spare seldom have great pitching. (If they did, they wouldn't need to trade with you!) The easiest trades to make are those involving very different players. If you offer another owner an outfielder in exchange for an outfielder, why should he give up his guy for your guy? But, if you offer a pitcher for an outfielder, then he's getting something completely different from what he's giving up. Offer speed for power, saves for strikeouts, a "skill" player (middle infielder or catcher) for a fungible hitter, etc. Sure, the stats are very different, but that makes it more plausible. If you're giving up someone who you figure will hit 20 home runs between the trade and the end of the season, but you are comfortable with the home run potential of the rest of your team and you need a lead-off type hitter who will score runs and steal bases, you may want to trade the homers for the steals/runs. The trade makes sense. That's what you are looking for.
8. Value in Numbers. Sometimes, a trade can get done based on giving up several players. Find an owner who has many holes in his lineup. Say it's early May and there's an owner who is down in the standings and who has been hit hard with injuries. He needs a starting pitcher, but he also needs a closer, and an outfielder, and a catcher. That owner might be willing to part with his star player if he can get back a number of players who would go right into his lineup. You might be able to make the deal for a superstar by giving back value in numbers. Is Pedro Martinez available? No. But if the other owner is desperate for a starter, and also needs a hitter and a catcher, you might be able to give back two starting pitchers (plugging the hole in the other guy's lineup, and also replacing Pedro) and an outfielder and a catcher and at least make him think about it. Would he have made that deal on draft day? No way. But he now has a need, and he must do something to prevent his team from falling so far back in the standings that nothing he can do later in the year would help.
9. Tit for Tat (As Dennis Miller use to say, "what exactly is 'tat' and how do I trade it in for the other thing?") In real life, there are some GMs who simply won't do business with other GMs. Often, the animosity stems from a deal done long ago where one GM feels that he got fleeced. "Never again" he says to himself. The same is true in the world of fantasy GMs. If you take someone to the cleaners by fluffing up the supposed value of one of your guys, who then fails to live up to expectations, chances are that the GM who did the deal with you is never going to believe anything you say again. On the other hand, if you have a reputation as a fair dealer, and someone who is willing to make a deal that benefits the other guy, you will be much more able to go out and make deals when you need them. Suppose a fellow owner calls you looking for a catcher. His guy is on the disabled list for 4-6 weeks and he needs a usable replacement. You've got your starter and two good backups, but you really don't need anything that the other guy has to offer. Should you do the deal anyway? In many cases, the answer is "yes." Take back reasonable value, even if you don't have a particular need for the player(s) you get, but do the deal in order to establish a good relationship with that GM, and a good reputation in your league as a fair dealer and someone who will do a trade. When you have a need later in the season, and you go calling on that same GM, you can expect at least a civil reception. If you turn him away because he doesn't have exactly what you want, don't expect him to do you a favor when you need one.
A fantasy league is like a village - screw somebody once and everyone knows about it. Help somebody out and everyone appreciates it.
Roto Notes
If you have the following players - don't panic. Ride out the early season slumps and expect a payoff later. If you want to reserve them until they get hot, that's fine, but don't trade them away for less than full value just because they are off to a slow start. On the flip side, if you can steal them from another owner cheap because they are off to slow starts, go for it!
Steve Finley - OF - Ariz - a notoriously slow starter, Finley will hit, and hit hard, eventually. Make sure you have him active when the hot streak starts.
Edgardo Alfonzo - 2B - NYM - Fonzie is fine. His back is fine. He's hit into a lot of hard outs. He'll come around.
Derek Bell - OF - Pit - Bell is always streaky. When he gets hot, he can stay hot for a month. Go ahead and reserve him until you see signs of him starting to hit, but once he starts, get him in there.
Vladamir Guerrero - OF - Mtl - yes, Vlad has only 1 home run. Don't worry. Keep him in there.
Quilvio Veras - 2B - Atl - he's not hurt, and you gotta expect that he'll start to hit and steal bases. Don't get concerned about the Marquis Giles call-up, Veras is still the man.
Geoff Jenkins - OF - Mlw - He's striking out much more than his career pace, which suggests that he's not seeing the ball well. He will. Wait.
David Segui - 1B - Bal - he's a quality hitter, and as the weather heats up (and hopefully as the Baltimore lineup generally gets hot) Segui will get his share.
Mike Sweeney - 1B - KC - he's off to a slow start, and even if he doesn't get back to last year's form, he'll be productive if you are patient.
Tim Salmon -OF - ANA - For some reason, he's always a slow starter. He will be worth a lot once he gets going.
On the other hand, if you have these guys, you might want to be worried, and try to unload them if you can get any value for them in a trade. If offered to you, be afraid . . . be very afraid:
Dante Bichette - OF - Bos -- sure, the Sox could trade him since he's serving no useful role at the moment, but if they don't he'll languish, and there's no guarantee that even after a trade he'll be ready to start busting out.
Mark McGwire - 1B - Stl - His chronically bad knee in a real problem, and he might not be worth anything this year.
Al Martin - OF - SEA - With Ichiro playing so well, Buhner coming back by May, and Martin not hitting a lick, Lou Pinella won't have much patience. Don't expect much unless he gets hot soon. Very soon.
Roberto Hernandez - Cl - KC - He's done. He can't get anybody out. He sucks (OK, I'm over-reacting because I drafted him in my money league, but he really does suck.)
Peter Bergeron OF - Mtl - If he stays cold, he may lose his job altogether, but since his trade value is about nil, there's not much you can do.
Tom Goodwin - OF - LA-since his job is not secure, he's a risk. His saving grace is that Marquis Grissom is in just as bad a slump, so he has not lost his job - yet.
Vinny Castilla - 3B - TB - he has already lost his job, and might not be able to be traded by TB. If you can get anything for him, do it now.
DD
Previous columns:
04/11/2001 - Draft Day Post Mortum
03/28/2001 - Diamonds in the Rough - Draft Day Sleepers
03/20/2001 - Ranking the Players - Part 1: Hitters
03/16/2001 - Strategy for your Roto Auction
03/10/2001 - Strategy for Your Roto Draft
03/02/2001 - Evaluating Players and Statistics - The Key to Winning Roto
02/22/2001 - Preparing for your Fantasy Draft
02/12/2001 - Rotisserie® Baseball - What is it, and why should I play?