Draft Day Post Mortum
So, you worked like a slave prepping for your draft. You had your lists, you had your stats, you had your master plan. For several hours, you felt the rush of the chase, the thrill of the hunt, the exhilaration of claiming your prize sleepers. And then . . . it's over. Take a deep breath. Time to take stock, make notes for next year, and start managing your team.
My draft went pretty well, but there were several players I really wanted but didn't get, and in retrospect I made a huge error that has left me with no viable backup shortstop. My partner and I lucked out and had the #1 pick in this year's Rotissaria draft. (Hey, sometimes not finishing in the money last year pays off.) Sixteen teams assembled in a large conference room in midtown Manhattan on the Thursday before the start of the season to do battle. We took Pedro with the top pick (no brainer), then had to wait until pick #32 before it came back to us in round 2. We had a list of our 64 top picks, and vowed to go strictly by the list (best available player theory) for at least the first 6 rounds, or as long as our list held out. While the first 7 picks went pretty much according to form, as the rest of the 1st and 2nd rounds played out, there was an unexpected run on starting pitchers. Apparently, every owner figured that they needed a stud starter, and if they waited beyond the second round, they would be stuck with the second tier left-overs. As a result, the hitters stayed on the board while not less than 14 starters were taken in the first two rounds. This played to our advantage, since we already had Pedro (and were protecting Jeff D'Amico from last year in the 24th round). So, unexpectedly, when our turn came for rounds 2 and 3 (the 32nd and 33rd overall picks), our #14 ranked player (Derek Jeter), along with our #20 (Jeff Cirillo), #21 (Edgardo Alfonzo), and a host of others who we had figured to be choosing from were still on the board. Despite Jeter's minor injury, and probable start of the season on the disabled list, we swore we would follow the list, and follow the list we did, choosing Jeter and Cirillo.
Then, 32 more picks to wait until our turn again. In the next two rounds, the run on closers started, with virtually every team snapping up a closer like they were free ice creams on an August day at Shea. Again, this played to our advantage, since we had decided not to take a closer until our 4-5 round, and then only if one of the top 4 were available. We would wait until later and pick up the second tier closers if we had to. When it came back to us, the second baseman that we coveted (Craig Biggio) was still there (Yes!!) as well as three outfielder/DHs who were all ranked together - Larry Walker, Juan Gonzalez, and Frank Thomas. Which to take?? In 30-seconds, we chose Larry Walker, largely because we already had Cirillo. At the end of the season, I'll have to look back and see whether Walker or Gonzalez was the right choice there.
Without going through every round of the draft, by the end we were pretty happy with the team we drafted. Mike Lieberthal at catcher, David Segui at 1st, and outfield that, besides Walker, includes Geoff Jenkins, Brian Jordan, and Carlos Beltran, closers Billy Wagner and Roberto Hernandez, and starters Osvaldo Fernandez, Kevin Appier (at least one Met!), Ben Sheets, and Frank Castillo to go with Pedro and D'Amico.
The mistakes, however, gnaw at me. First, we never stepped up and got a backup shortstop. Knowing that Jeter was hurt, and knowing that we would need somebody for week #1 if nothing else, we should have been more aggressive there. We had our eye on Carlos Guillen of Seattle, but the round we were going to jump on him, somebody else did first. In the end, we settled for Felix Martinez of the Devil Rays - a very poor choice. Since our league doesn't allow Free Agent Pickups until August, we'll have to hope that Jeter stays healthy - or we'll need to make a trade.
Evaluating your Team
In the first week or so after the draft, you need to figure out where your strengths are, and what you need to do to improve yourself. And don't let early season performances sway you. Just because somebody got hot and hit 3 home runs in the first week doesn't mean much over 162 games. What's more important is playing time. Are your starters really starting? Is there a platoon situation that you didn't figure on? Are your starters solidly in the #3 spot of their rotation, or are they precariously clinging to the #5 spot? Did your closer get all the save chances this week, or did somebody else get the call some (or all) of the time? Playing time and how your players are being used by their real life managers is what to look for at this stage.
So, where are you strong? Do you have 7 starters who are all solid? Do you have a back-up at Third Base who could be a starter for somebody else? Do you need a closer? Are you thin in the outfield and subject to trouble if you get an injury? Try to objectively evaluate where you are strong and weak, and start planning now for making some adjustments via trade (or Free Agency if your league allows pick-ups early in the season). We'll talk more about trades next week, but suffice to say that the best time to make a trade to shore up a weak spot is BEFORE your starter goes down with an injury.
Beware the Injury Prone Starter
Now that you've drafted them, take a very close look at your players. Look at the last three years worth of stats. They are available at:
espn.com , among other places
Now, ignore every stat except one - games played. Has your guy played 160 games every year? Or, has he played 125? If you've got a guy who hasn't played more than 140 games any of the last three seasons, you've got a potential problem. Now, this doesn't mean you should trade Ellis Burks - he'll be very productive when he's in the lineup. But, you can count on him spending some time on the disabled list this season. You need to be prepared with a good backup. Similarly, if you drafted Rondell White, don't say you weren't warned if you lack a viable backup when he goes down (and he will). For me, I'm counting on Larry Walker missing some time - he always does. I'm ready.
Weekly managing Tips
Aside from tweaking your line-up by picking up new players (more on that next week), you also need to set your starting lineup each week. Unless your league has all your players "active" each week, you need to manager your reserve squad carefully. Which of your players do you put in, and which do you bench?
In general, my advice is to set your lineup of hitters and stay with it barring injury. Hitters tend to be pretty consistent. Unless you've got a player who has a history of getting into hot and cold streaks (e.g., Derek Bell), in which case you need to pay close attention to whether they are on the upside or downside of such a streak, don't try to manipulate your lineup of hitters each week looking for that slight advantage. Sure, the Expos might be playing 7 games next week, while the Dodgers are playing only 6 games - but does that mean you should activate Peter Bergeron and bench Tom Goodwin? Answer: "NO!!!!" If you rate Goodwin the better player (you should), you don't take a good player out of your lineup and insert an inferior player in order to gain that kind of advantage. Chances are that Goodwin's numbers for the week will be as good or better than Bergeron, and you'll kick yourself if you start manipulating your lineup like that. Sure, if you've got a player with an injury you take him out, or if you've got a platoon player who sits against lefties, and the team is scheduled to face 2 or 3 lefty starters this week, you might make a move. But don't try to monkey with your hitters much. Pick your best guys and stick with them. You'll be sure to catch the hot games as well as the cold games and at the end of the season they will give you the stats that you expect.
Pitchers, however, are a much different story. Not only home/away issues, but career records vs. a particular team, opponent, opposing starter, and grass/turf are all things to consider. Good information about upcoming pitchers' starts is available on line, and you should use it. If you have, say, 7 starters on your team, and you have to use 4 of them (or if you can take them in and out and replace them with relievers), think carefully each week about your pitchers' schedules. Don't just automatically insert starters who are scheduled to pitch two games in the week. If they are on the road against Colorado and Atlanta, you don't want them in your lineup. If a guy is scheduled to start against Pedro Martinez and Mike Mussina, you probably don't need their two losses. If a guy has a lifetime record of 10-2 and an ERA of 2.5 against the Indians, then don't be afraid of a start at Jacobs Field - get him in there!!
I advise that you create a pitching chart for your team. Each week, before the deadline for making roster moves, chart the upcoming starts for your pitchers. List date, location, opponent, opposing starter (if you can find that information), career record vs. team, and any other information that you deem relevant. Consider carefully which starters you want to be active. Consider whether it's a good thing or a bad thing to have two of your starters pitching against each other. Consider whether the opposing team is hot or cold. You can be a genius, or a fool, but you'll have fun with it.
The exception here is that you don't mess with your aces. If you have two or three starters who you drafted high and you are counting on to anchor your staff, don't bother with an evaluation of their upcoming schedule - you want them in all the time. But for the marginal guys, try to get every advantage. You'll find that your enjoyment of the games will be enhanced if you have made a specific managerial decision to take a guy out just before he gets pounded, or activated a guy who pitches well. And even if you made the wrong calls, at least you will have done so based on objective information, instead of blind luck!
Now, get out there and manage!!
How Did Your Draft Go?
Who were the sleepers in your draft? What unusual picks did you see? Tell me about them by emailing me at d.diamond@kcmets.com and I'll work the best comments into future columns!!
Previous columns:
03/28/2001 - Diamonds in the Rough - Draft Day Sleepers
03/20/2001 - Ranking the Players - Part 1: Hitters
03/16/2001 - Strategy for your Roto Auction
03/10/2001 - Strategy for Your Roto Draft
03/02/2001 - Evaluating Players and Statistics - The Key to Winning Roto
02/22/2001 - Preparing for your Fantasy Draft
02/12/2001 - Rotisserie® Baseball - What is it, and why should I play?