Diamonds in the Rough - Draft Day Sleepers
Draft day is here. You have your stats. You have your player rankings. You are supremely confident that you know who the very best players are.
But, when the top 10 second basemen are taken, and you still need one, who do you take? Who are the players who will slip low in the draft, but who will have productive seasons and make their owner a winner? (Hey, if I knew that, I'd win my league every year, right?) Well, here are my best guesses.
A "sleeper" is a player who is not expected to be great, but who has a great season. He necessarily goes late in the draft, or costs only a few bucks in an auction. If everybody in the league expects the guy to have a break-out season, then he's not a sleeper. In general, sleepers are either (a) young players who either need some playing time in order to prove their potential, and will get some this year, (b) players coming off injuries, whose recent performance has been held back, but who will be healthy this year and likely to break out, or (c) are a veteran who never had a chance to shine, but who suddenly find themselves in a situation where they'll get a chance to play and produce. Here, by position, are my secret list of sleepers. Shhh - don't tell anybody, or they won't stay sleepers for long.
Starting Pitchers
Rick Ankiel - wouldn't be a sleeper after a great rookie season, but his melt down in the playoffs will scare lots of folks off from drafting him. I look for a complete bounce-back and a great season.
Frank Castillo - move from Toronto to Boston will help him, and if he puts up the same 3.59 ERA this year as last, he'll be a 20-game winner.
Carl Pavano - injured now, but on the comeback trail - expect him back in the rotation by May, and well worth a late draft pick.
Glendon Rusch - Mets #4 starter throws strikes and lets his defense help him. Will be very solid this year, and will put up decent strikeout totals along the way.
Brad Radke - After a sub-par 2000 season, look for Radke to rebound to top form again this year and be a value in the draft.
Steve Parris - you might think I need my head examined, but he pitched much better than his numbers showed in the first half last year, and in the second half pitched very well. Trade to Toronto will give him a new start, and expect that he'll put up much better numbers.
Dustin Hermanson - new life in St. Louis for a steady starter. Ignore last year's 4.77 ERA and expect much better this year.
Matt Clement - young stud in the making. Will probably benefit from the new high strike, and put up good numbers. San Diego won't score much for him, but his 170 Ks last year are more indicative of his talent than his 5.14 ERA.
Orlando Fernandez - Veteran knows how to pitch, and last two seasons have been interrupted by injury, but this year look for him to anchor a surprisingly good Cincinnati staff.
Mark Mulder - powerful lefty will bloom this year for Oakland.
Catchers
There are no real sleepers here, since there are only 5-6 players who are worth anything, and everyone knows who they are. But, if you're looking for a bargain here, try:
Mitch Meluskey - trade to Detroit should open the door for him to slash line drives into the gaps at Comerica. If he can keep up his .300 batting average, his other numbers will be decent.
Ben Petrick - if he can win enough playing time, he'll put up numbers at Coors that are worth more than his price.
Jason Veritek - not really a sleeper any more, but Boston backstop will be hitting in a very hot lineup this year, and will have lots of RBI opportunities.
Mike Matheny - last year missed the playoffs because of injury. Tony LaRussa loves him, and will give him most of the playing time for Cardinals.
First Base
The big boppers here are not sleepers, but there are some good values who may be overlooked in the early draft rounds:
John Olerud - gets no respect because he doesn't hit 30 homers, but even in a down year last year, still drove in 106. Look for him to carry more of the RBI load for Seattle this year, and probably increase his home run production.
Mark Grace - he's out to prove that he's not over the hill, and I think he'll do it.
David Segui - last year, the first time he had steady playing time, Segui had 574 at bats and produced 19 homers and 103 RBI. This year, with a full year in one place, and a good hitters park in Baltimore, expect bigger things.
Todd Zeile - last year was terrible. He's got to turn it around this year, so expect better numbers than last year's price.
Rico Brogna - don't forget that when he was the starter in Philly two years ago, he put up very good numbers. Last year, an injury slowed him, and Pat Burrell took his job. This year with Atlanta, he'll be able to relax and hit, which he can do pretty well.
Second Base
Lots of value at this position, which is deeper than it has been in many years.
Craig Biggio - hard to think of Biggio as a sleeper, but injury-shortened 2000 season produced down stats, which may allow him to slip down in your draft. Make no mistake, he's back and will be strong.
Jose Offerman - two years ago, he put up some of the best numbers in the league for a second sacker, but last year was a disaster. Look for him to bounce back.
Todd Walker - once a highly touted prospect for the Twins, he fought with manager Tom Kelly and never found a home in Minnesota. Now with the Rockies, he will bloom and have 25/100 power numbers.
Quilvio Veras - only a knee injury stopped him from having a great year last year. Half a year's worth of stats may scare folks away this year, but he's still well worth a draft.
Third Base
Perhaps the thinnest position, there are a few nuggets hidden here:
Matt Williams - the once-feared slugger has fallen on hard times over the past two years due to injury. This year, look for him to explode back onto the elite level.
John Valentin - Two lost seasons have probably caused most owners to forget that Valentin was a stud. Given the lack of options at this position, he's worth a shot coming back from injury in Boston.
Bill Mueller - finally a full-time player in Chicago, Mueller may well show San Francisco that they should have kept him.
Mike Lowell - had one bad month last year, but otherwise was steady. One more year of experience under his belt will only make him better.
Shortstop
After the big 3 (or big 5), who's worth a pick?
Neifi Perez - has shown steady improvement over the past two years, and finally figured out that he doesn't have to try to hit homers at Coors in order to be a productive hitter. Look for him to steal more bases this year, and hit closer to .300
Carlos Guillen - Injured during his rookie year, when he was supposed to play second base, then forgotten last year when he was trying to play third, Guillen is finally back to his "natural" shortstop position, and ready to make the Seattle fans forget A-Rod. Well, at least not miss him so much.
Julio Lugo - had a pretty good half-season last year in Houston after being called up, and if he wins the job outright, will put up productive numbers.
Devi Cruz - Detroit shortstop had a season last year that was quietly pretty good, including a .300 batting average.
Outfielders and DHs
Of course, there are lots of outfielders who will put up great numbers. But who is under rated?
Luis Gonzalez - doesn't seem to get much respect, although last two years have been very consistent and very productive. Looking for a guy who has 100+ runs and RBI, 30 homers, and a .300+ batting average: here's your guy.
Larry Walker - he's a former MVP, so how can he be a sleeper? Coming off two consecutive seasons with major injuries, many owners will be shy about taking him early. Don't be.
Mike Cameron - in relative obscurity in Seattle, Cameron had a nice season last year, including 96 runs and 19 homers to go along with 24 steals. Look for even better stats this year.
Carlos Beltran - just two years ago he was in the top tier of AL outfielders, then last year he fell way off for no apparent reason. Won't happen twice in a row - expect him to be back close to '99 numbers this year.
Roger Cedeno - injuries killed him last year and got him traded to Detroit. He'll have the opportunity to show that he was worth the price Houston paid for him.
J.D. Drew - after being in an outfield rotation last year, Drew will have a chance this year to play every day and live up to his hype. He might.
Are there other sleepers out there? Sure. You think I'm gonna tell you?
DD
Next week: Draft day post-mortum
Previous columns:
03/20/2001 - Ranking the Players - Part 1: Hitters
03/16/2001 - Strategy for your Roto Auction
03/10/2001 - Strategy for Your Roto Draft
03/02/2001 - Evaluating Players and Statistics - The Key to Winning Roto
02/22/2001 - Preparing for your Fantasy Draft
02/12/2001 - Rotisserie® Baseball - What is it, and why should I play?