Ranking the Players - Part 2: Pitchers
Now, the first thing I will say here is that pitchers are unpredictable. Aside from about the top 5-10 studs, everybody else is a crap shoot. My advice is to look for young pitchers, who are in the 26-29 year-old range, who have 2-3 years of major league experience, and who had a decent year last year. Especially if they are on a good team, who will score runs for them, those are the guys to go for lots of upside. Stay away from the journeyman veteran who isn't likely to have a break-out season. Mediocre numbers from your 3rd or 4th starter isn't what you need. Look for the guys with the chance to be great.
That said, here is my ranking of pitchers, based entirely on 2000 stats. I've broken them down into starters, closers, and middle men. Once again, the analysis is based on both a "raw" score based on the secret Diamond formula, and also a Z-score that rates the players relative to the average player in that position. In this way, you can try to judge how to evaluate your pitchers against your hitters. (Middle relievers have no Z-score analysis. Compare their raw score with a starter or closer to see whether their value justifies a middle man pick. Only the middle men with C-scores above zero are listed.)
Good luck!
2001 PITCHING ANALYSIS
Starters D-score Z-score P. Martinez 955 4.64 R. Johnson 785 3.65 K. Brown 651 2.88 G. Maddux 611 2.65 A. Leiter 515 2.09 T. Glavine 506 2.03 C. Park 504 2.03 D. Kile 491 1.95 J. D'Amico 449 1.7 M. Mussina 425 1.57 T. Hudson 418 1.53 M. Hampton 407 1.47 R. Dempster 400 1.42 D. Wells 397 1.4 R. Ankiel 395 1.39 C. Schilling 383 1.32 R. Clemens 383 1.32 B. Colon 379 1.3 L. Hernandez 375 1.28 B. Zito 363 1.21 J. Lieber 350 1.13 B. Chen 329 1.01 G. Rusch 321 0.97 K. Benson 321 0.97 C. Finley 320 0.96 F. Castillo 318 0.95 M. Sirotka 307 0.88 W. Williams 306 0.88 R. Person 299 0.84 J. Vazquez 294 0.81 C. Pavano 291 0.79 R. Reed 289 0.78 O. Hernandez 284 0.75 D. Dreifort 283 0.74 C. Smith 275 0.7 B. Anderson 272 0.68 E. Milton 266 0.65 J. Weaver 260 0.61 A. Sele 257 0.6 A. Pettitte 254 0.58 G. Stephenson 250 0.56 D. Neagle 247 0.54 D. Burba 246 0.53 R. Helling 245 0.52 K. Millwood 244 0.52 G. Heredia 234 0.46 M. Gardner 228 0.43 R. Wolf 225 0.41 J. Washburn 225 0.41 B. Radke 224 0.41 S. Williamson 221 0.38 J. Baldwin 203 0.28 S. Elarton 193 0.23 S. Estes 185 0.18 P. Abbott 183 0.17 S. Spencer 182 0.16 J. Mercedes 178 0.14 J. Parque 176 0.13 P. Astacio 173 0.11 B. Tollberg 172 0.1 K. Rogers 172 0.1 A. Lopez 172 0.1 F. Garcia 171 0.1 O. Fernandez 169 0.09 S. Ponson 169 0.08 E. Loaiza 168 0.08 K. Appier 168 0.08 K. Tapani 167 0.08 K. Rueter 165 0.06 T. Ohka 162 0.05 H. Nomo 158 0.02 M. Redman 157 0.02 P. Hentgen 156 0.01 S. Sparks 149 -0.03 E. Dessens 148 -0.04 A. Benes 146 -0.05 B. Moehler 144 -0.06 R. Ortiz 144 -0.06 G. Meche 142 -0.07 T. Ritchie 139 -0.09 M. Clement 138 -0.1 A. Ashby 137 -0.1 B. Rekar 132 -0.13 T. Armas 131 -0.13 A. Eaton 129 -0.14 C. Politte 128 -0.15 M. Suzuki 127 -0.16 B. Bohanon 122 -0.18 C. Eldred 120 -0.2 J. Wright 119 -0.2 A. Reynoso 116 -0.22 K. Wood 111 -0.25 R. Mendoza 107 -0.27 J. Moyer 101 -0.31 K. Escobar 100 -0.31 J. Tavarez 99 -0.32 J. Suppan 97 -0.33 S. Parris 96 -0.34 R. Arrojo 92 -0.36 P. Harnisch 90 -0.37 D. Hermanson 89 -0.38 J. Bere 86 -0.4 B. Jones 84 -0.4 W. Blair 83 -0.41 J. Sanchez 73 -0.47 B. Stein 72 -0.48 T. Stottlemyre 71 -0.48 R. Ortiz 69 -0.49 R. Bell 62 -0.53 B. Meadows 61 -0.54 S. Trachsel 59 -0.55 E. Yan 58 -0.56 J. Halama 56 -0.57 C. Holt 54 -0.58 W. Miller 53 -0.59 B. Tomko 48 -0.62 J. Burkett 46 -0.63 A. Fernandez 38 -0.67 B. Penny 35 -0.69 J. Fassero 34 -0.69 K. Bottenfield 34 -0.7 T. Wakefield 31 -0.71 O. Dotel 30 -0.72 S. Reynolds 28 -0.73 S. Schoeneweis 20 -0.78 C. Carpenter 17 -0.79 D. Reichert 16 -0.8 T. Mulholland 16 -0.8 J. Haynes 9 -0.84 P. Rigdon 4 -0.87 J. Lima 3 -0.87 M. Yoshii 0 -0.89 P. Rapp -1 -0.9 J. Silva -3 -0.91 J. Wright -7 -0.93 R. Martinez -11 -0.96 S. Woodard -14 -0.97 D. Gooden -17 -0.99 J. Mays -18 -0.99 R. Villone -21 -1.01 P. Schourek -22 -1.02 G. Guzman -24 -1.03 R. Cornelius -24 -1.03 F. Cordova -25 -1.03 J. Witasick -28 -1.06 B. Rose -29 -1.06 C. Lidle -33 -1.08 A. Burnett -35 -1.1 M. Mulder -37 -1.11 K. Jarvis -45 -1.15 S. Hitchcock -45 -1.15 J. Anderson -48 -1.17 C. Perez -51 -1.19 D. Mlicki -51 -1.19 C. Nitkowski -53 -1.2 M. Johnson -53 -1.2 S. Etherton -57 -1.22 I. Valdes -59 -1.23 P. Byrd -65 -1.27 O. Daal -75 -1.32 E. Gagne -78 -1.34 J. Nathan -82 -1.37 D. Davis -84 -1.38 D. Cone -87 -1.4 R. Rupe -97 -1.45
Closers D-score Z-score R. Nen 472 2.94 A. Benitez 398 2.27 T. Hoffman 371 2.03 D. Lowe 335 1.7 M. Rivera 325 1.61 K. Foulke 323 1.59 B. Koch 318 1.55 U. Urbina 308 1.46 G. White 293 1.32 D. Graves 285 1.25 K. Sasaki 270 1.12 D. Veres 240 0.85 T. Jones 214 0.61 R. Hernandez 211 0.58 M. Jackson 205 0.53 C. Leskanic 194 0.44 B. Wickman 194 0.43 A. Alfonseca 187 0.37 J. Isringhausen 186 0.36 J. Mecir 178 0.29 J. Jimenez 176 0.27 R. King 167 0.19 M. Williams 159 0.12 M. Herges 157 0.1 J. Nelson 151 0.05 J. Wetteland 150 0.03 S. Strickland 138 -0.07 R. Garces 137 -0.08 S. Karsay 135 -0.1 F. Rodriguez 134 -0.1 M. Remlinger 134 -0.11 T. Percival 126 -0.18 M. Myers 114 -0.29 T. Wendell 113 -0.3 S. Sullivan 112 -0.31 M. Fetters 103 -0.39 J. Rocker 103 -0.39 B. Wells 103 -0.39 B. Howry 103 -0.39 J. Shaw 102 -0.39 K. Wunsch 91 -0.5 J. Speier 85 -0.55 J. Tam 84 -0.56 D. Wall 82 -0.57 J. Franco 75 -0.64 R. Bottalico 71 -0.68 G. Swindell 70 -0.69 J. Paniagua 68 -0.7 P. Shuey 63 -0.75 R. Beck 61 -0.76 N. Cruz 57 -0.8 R. Aguilera 52 -0.85 P. Wilson 51 -0.86 M. James 43 -0.93 L. Barcelo 41 -0.95 M. Fyhrie 39 -0.96 B. Reames 23 -1.1 M. Timlin 15 -1.18 M. Mantei 7 -1.25 B. Ward -7 -1.37 J. Brantley -16 -1.45 B. Wagner -130 -2.49
Middle Men Score G. White 372 R. King 232 M. Myers 207 J. Mecir 155 J. Nelson 152 R. Garces 147 C. Leskanic 138 M. Herges 132 F. Rodriguez 130 S. Strickland 126 D. Wall 97 R. Beck 97 M. Fetters 86 J. Tam 77 M. Fyhrie 75 K. Wunsch 73 J. Speier 71 B. Howry 69 M. Remlinger 59 S. Sullivan 54 P. Wilson 51 N. Cruz 50 T. Wendell 45 P. Shuey 37 L. Barcelo 36 J. Paniagua 35 M. James 28 G. Swindell 27 B. Reames 26 B. Wells 20 B. Ward 13 J. Franco 12 DD
Next time: Diamonds in the rough – Draft Day Sleepers
Previous columns:
03/20/2001 - Ranking the Players - Part 1: Hitters
03/16/2001 - Strategy for your Roto Auction
03/10/2001 - Strategy for Your Roto Draft
03/02/2001 - Evaluating Players and Statistics - The Key to Winning Roto
02/22/2001 - Preparing for your Fantasy Draft
02/12/2001 - Rotisserie® Baseball - What is it, and why should I play?