Ranking the Players - Part 1: Hitters
Several years ago, a new owner in my rotisserie league walked in to the draft room and drafted hitters with this first ten picks. He had an awesome lineup, but we all scoffed at the strategy. He had no pitching, so how could he win? He did. Now, the fact is that he got lucky with some late-round draft choices who pitched over their heads and allowed him to finish in the top half in the pitching categories, while he blew away the field in the hitting categories. The moral of the story, however, is that if you have a strategy and stick to it, good things can happen. (The other moral is that pitching is very unpredictable, so you might as well get proven hitters early in the draft, and pick up pitchers late.)
But, even if you have a strategy and want to get the best hitters possible for your league - who are they? Today, I rank the hitters. In a prior column, I gave you my top picks. Now, the full lists, by position. Remember that the hitters on this list are ranked based on 5x5 roto format - with the hitting categories being: Batting Average, Runs, RBI, HR, and Steals. Hitters who slash lots of doubles, or who walk a lot and get on base, score no points in this analysis. Base stealers who run a lot and get caught a lot are not penalized for their times caught stealing. But this is a very standard roto format, so I'm giving it to you this way. If your league uses other stats, make sure you factor that in when using these numbers.
All players are ranked by two numbers - D-Score (the raw score of the players' stats using the Diamond method based on 2000 statistics), and a Z-Score (the number of standard deviations above or below the mean for that player's position). Because middle infielders have generally lower raw D-Scores than outfielders, it takes a lower D-Score to equal the same Z-Score. This is indicative of the fact that there are more "good" outfielders in terms of absolute numbers than there are shortstops who will produce similar numbers. You can, therefore, pass on Andruw Jones and "settle" for Jim Edmonds without losing much, but if you pass on Omar Vizquel and settle for Neifi Perez, the drop off in production will be relatively greater.
The players ranked all had at least 100 AB at their position last year. I have not attempted to adjust the numbers for injuries, or project which players will have better years this year than last. (Watch the Roto Notes section at the end of each column for that information.)
Also, the players here are ranked on a combined NL/AL list. If your league uses only NL or only AL players, you'll have to consider whether the talent pool is significantly changed (e.g., at Shortstop) by the absence of both leagues.
Good luck with your roto drafts. If you have stories about your drafts, or commentary on my rankings or strategy advice, I'd love to hear about it. Write me at DiamondDad@kcmets.com.
2001 Player Rankings (based on 2000 statistics). 5x5 roto format. Combo league
Player D-score Z-score I. Rodriguez 134 2.75 J. Kendall 133 2.74 M. Piazza 123 2.57 C. Johnson 87 1.98 J. Posada 71 1.72 D. Fletcher 49 1.35 J. Lopez 37 1.16 M. Meluskey 27 0.99 B. Ausmus 24 0.94 B. Petrick 23 0.93 T. Hundley 23 0.93 B. Fordyce 21 0.89 B. Molina 20 0.88 B. Mayne 9 0.7 S. Alomar 7 0.66 M. Lieberthal 0 0.55 J. Girardi -3 0.5 D. Miller -5 0.47 G. Zaun -11 0.37 T. Pratt -19 0.24 J. Varitek -21 0.2 K. Osik -24 0.15 T. Eusebio -24 0.15 M. Matheny -25 0.14 J. Oliver -25 0.14 E. Diaz -26 0.12 R. Hernandez -27 0.1 J. Flaherty -28 0.09 B. Haselman -31 0.04 C. Kreuter -32 0.02 E. Taubensee -33 0.01 J. Fabregas -36 -0.04 B. Estalella -39 -0.09 S. Hatteberg -41 -0.13 B. Santiago -41 -0.13 C. Hernandez -51 -0.29 C. Widger -56 -0.37 R. Casanova -61 -0.45 T. Lampkin -61 -0.45 H. Blanco -63 -0.49 D. Wilson -63 -0.49 M. Redmond -66 -0.54 M. DiFelice -66 -0.54 W. Gonzalez -72 -0.64 D. Mirabelli -75 -0.68 M. Johnson -75 -0.68 E. Marrero -79 -0.75 T. Prince -80 -0.77 R. Castro -84 -0.83 K. Stinnett -88 -0.9 P. Bako -89 -0.91 J. Reed -91 -0.95 S. Fasano -93 -0.98 B. Schneider -94 -1 B. Davis -96 -1.03 G. Myers -99 -1.08 M. Jensen -107 -1.21 S. Servais -107 -1.21 A. Castillo -109 -1.24 C. Moeller -109 -1.24 M. Walbeck -113 -1.31 B. Johnson -114 -1.33 M. LeCroy -138 -1.72
Player D-score Z-score J. Bagwell 186 2.22 T. Helton 183 2.18 D. Erstad 164 1.9 C. Delgado 155 1.77 J. Giambi 150 1.7 M. Sweeney 128 1.38 D. Segui 103 1.01 R. Palmeiro 97 0.93 W. Clark 92 0.85 R. Klesko 84 0.74 J. Thome 81 0.69 B. Fulmer 79 0.66 P. Konerko 73 0.58 M. Vaughn 72 0.56 M. McGwire 71 0.55 S. Casey 70 0.53 A. Galarraga 62 0.42 R. Sexson 53 0.29 J. Snow 52 0.27 F. McGriff 51 0.26 J. Olerud 48 0.21 E. Karros 43 0.14 D. Lee 41 0.11 M. Grace 32 -0.02 T. Zeile 28 -0.08 K. Young 28 -0.08 G. Colbrunn 26 -0.11 R. Coomer 21 -0.18 T. Martinez 16 -0.25 L. Stevens 15 -0.27 P. Burrell 2 -0.46 B. Daubach -6 -0.57 C. Richard -10 -0.63 D. McCarty -11 -0.64 T. Clark -16 -0.72 D. Hansen -20 -0.78 W. Joyner -25 -0.85 F. Seguignol -25 -0.85 K. Millar -26 -0.86 E. Durazo -26 -0.86 T. Lee -30 -0.92 H. Morris -30 -0.92 T. Houston -33 -0.96 G. Jefferies -40 -1.07 M. Stanley -50 -1.21 R. Fick -60 -1.36 R. Brogna -80 -1.65 M. Franco -85 -1.72 B. Hunter -99 -1.92
Player D-score Z-score J. Kent 156 2.2 L. Castillo 155 2.18 R. Alomar 145 2.02 E. Alfonzo 126 1.72 J. Vidro 121 1.64 E. Young 120 1.62 R. Durham 111 1.48 D. DeShields 92 1.18 M. Grudzielanek 64 0.73 Q. Veras 60 0.66 F. Vina 60 0.66 L. Alicea 51 0.52 J. Bell 46 0.44 R. Velarde 46 0.44 A. Kennedy 44 0.41 C. Knoblauch 43 0.39 P. Polanco 40 0.35 P. Reese 37 0.3 D. Easley 27 0.14 F. Catalanotto 27 0.14 J. Frye 27 0.14 R. Belliard 26 0.12 D. Hocking 26 0.12 C. Biggio 20 0.03 M. McLemore 15 -0.05 T. Walker 13 -0.09 C. Counsell 9 -0.15 B. Boone 5 -0.21 M. Cairo 4 -0.23 J. Offerman 2 -0.26 W. Morris 2 -0.26 C. Grebeck 1 -0.28 C. Febles 0 -0.29 M. Lansing -4 -0.36 J. Canizaro -12 -0.48 D. Bell -18 -0.58 T. Graffanino -19 -0.6 M. Morandini -31 -0.79 K. Lockhart -32 -0.8 J. Hairston -39 -0.92 F. Menechino -42 -0.96 J. Vizcaino -46 -1.03 J. Macias -52 -1.12 W. Delgado -53 -1.14 J. Reboulet -61 -1.27 H. Bush -72 -1.44 B. Smith -72 -1.44 J. Maxwell -75 -1.49 K. Jordan -80 -1.57 M. Anderson -94 -1.79
Player D-score Z-score C. Jones 134 2.02 T. Glaus 119 1.81 J. Cirillo 112 1.71 T. Fryman 104 1.6 P. Nevin 95 1.48 S. Rolen 76 1.22 T. Batista 74 1.19 C. Stynes 73 1.17 J. Randa 57 0.95 E. Chavez 56 0.94 C. Koskie 53 0.9 H. Perry 50 0.86 A. Beltre 46 0.8 B. Mueller 40 0.72 M. Lowell 33 0.62 D. Palmer 19 0.43 J. Conine 15 0.38 M. Lamb 14 0.36 K. Caminiti 10 0.31 B. Spiers 10 0.31 A. Boone 6 0.25 G. Blum -1 0.15 F. Tatis -3 0.13 M. Williams -5 0.1 L. Merloni -5 0.1 L. Sojo -9 0.04 E. Wilson -10 0.03 R. Ventura -17 -0.07 C. Guillen -26 -0.19 M. Mordecai -27 -0.2 S. Brosius -28 -0.22 J. Hernandez -29 -0.23 C. Hayes -29 -0.23 A. Huff -32 -0.27 M. Benjamin -35 -0.31 A. Tracy -35 -0.31 C. Ripken -36 -0.33 C. Truby -36 -0.33 R. Davis -38 -0.35 L. Harris -40 -0.38 C. Paquette -43 -0.42 S. Halter -45 -0.45 D. Magadan -47 -0.48 E. Sprague -50 -0.52 A. Ramirez -54 -0.58 M. Lewis -60 -0.66 G. Norton -60 -0.66 R. Johnson -62 -0.69 S. Andrews -67 -0.75 W. Veras -70 -0.8 V. Castilla -86 -1.02 W. Greene -90 -1.07 M. Alexander -90 -1.07 M. Barrett -92 -1.1 J. Huson -101 -1.22 J. Nieves -101 -1.22 J. Valentin -335 -4.45
2000 MLB Season -- Shortstop Player D-score Z-score A. Rodriguez 180 2.47 D. Jeter 131 1.82 N. Garciaparra 124 1.73 R. Furcal 91 1.3 J. Valentin 89 1.27 T. Womack 83 1.19 O. Vizquel 82 1.18 E. Renteria 78 1.13 M. Tejada 76 1.1 B. Larkin 74 1.07 M. Bordick 67 0.98 J. Lugo 58 0.86 N. Perez 57 0.85 D. Cruz 46 0.7 C. Guzman 37 0.58 R. Gutierrez 33 0.53 R. Aurilia 24 0.41 D. Jackson 22 0.39 M. Mora 20 0.36 R. Sanchez 14 0.28 R. Martinez 6 0.18 M. Loretta 2 0.12 R. Clayton 2 0.12 A. Gonzalez -11 -0.05 P. Meares -26 -0.25 S. Sheldon -28 -0.27 O. Cabrera -34 -0.35 L. Lopez -40 -0.43 W. Weiss -45 -0.5 D. Relaford -47 -0.52 A. Cora -50 -0.56 B. Gil -52 -0.59 D. Berg -56 -0.64 A. Fox -60 -0.7 K. Elster -65 -0.76 O. Guillen -67 -0.79 F. Martinez -68 -0.8 J. Castro -70 -0.83 K. Stocker -72 -0.85 A. Gonzalez -86 -1.04 T. Bogar -88 -1.06 K. Abbott -89 -1.08 L. Ordaz -93 -1.13 T. Perez -95 -1.16 H. Frias -108 -1.33 A. Arias -128 -1.59 C. Woodward -132 -1.64 R. Ordonez -137 -1.71
2000 MLB Season -- Outfield & DH Player D-score Z-score J. Damon 192 2.23 B. Bonds 161 1.83 R. Hidalgo 160 1.82 F. Thomas 156 1.77 A. Jones 151 1.71 V. Guerrero 150 1.69 G. Sheffield 149 1.68 J. Edmonds 149 1.68 S. Sosa 148 1.67 M. Ordonez 140 1.57 B. Giles 137 1.53 B. Abreu 137 1.53 S. Stewart 136 1.52 J. Dye 133 1.48 E. Martinez 132 1.47 L. Gonzalez 124 1.36 M. Ramirez 123 1.35 G. Jenkins 119 1.3 B. Williams 118 1.29 J. Hammonds 118 1.29 C. Lee 111 1.2 B. Higginson 109 1.17 T. Salmon 103 1.1 M. Alou 100 1.06 P. Wilson 99 1.05 C. Everett 98 1.03 S. Finley 97 1.02 E. Burks 94 0.98 D. Justice 92 0.96 M. Lawton 90 0.93 G. Anderson 90 0.93 C. Floyd 89 0.92 T. Goodwin 83 0.84 K. Griffey 82 0.83 T. Long 82 0.83 S. Green 81 0.82 M. Kotsay 81 0.82 K. Lofton 80 0.81 E. Owens 80 0.81 J. Vander Wal 74 0.73 M. Cameron 72 0.7 J. Drew 70 0.68 D. Bichette 69 0.67 L. Berkman 69 0.67 D. Glanville 68 0.65 B. Grieve 64 0.6 M. Benard 64 0.6 G. Williams 63 0.59 P. O'Neill 61 0.56 R. Mondesi 61 0.56 A. Brown 61 0.56 M. Quinn 60 0.55 J. Encarnacion 59 0.54 D. Young 56 0.5 R. White 53 0.46 J. Cruz 53 0.46 T. Hollandsworth 53 0.46 L. Walker 52 0.45 A. Ochoa 52 0.45 J. Gonzalez 49 0.41 B. Surhoff 49 0.41 G. Kapler 48 0.4 B. Anderson 47 0.39 D. Bell 46 0.37 J. Payton 44 0.35 J. Jones 43 0.34 A. Belle 42 0.32 A. Martin 41 0.31 R. Greer 39 0.28 G. Vaughn 35 0.23 C. Singleton 35 0.23 J. Burnitz 34 0.22 R. Cedeno 32 0.2 B. Jordan 30 0.17 O. Saenz 28 0.14 G. Hill 28 0.14 T. Nixon 27 0.13 W. Cordero 26 0.12 D. Bautista 21 0.06 R. Lankford 21 0.06 B. Agbayani 18 0.02 D. Ortiz 17 0 R. Gant 14 -0.03 R. Henderson 13 -0.05 E. Davis 13 -0.05 D. Martinez 12 -0.06 M. Grissom 10 -0.08 S. Javier 10 -0.08 L. Polonia 8 -0.11 J. Pierre 8 -0.11 T. O'Leary 7 -0.12 O. Palmeiro 7 -0.12 T. Gwynn 6 -0.13 P. Bergeron 6 -0.13 S. Cox 4 -0.16 R. Mateo 1 -0.2 M. Tucker 0 -0.21 B. Hunter 0 -0.21 T. Hunter -2 -0.24 M. Stairs -4 -0.26 C. Curtis -4 -0.26 J. Buhner -7 -0.3 T. Shumpert -7 -0.3 A. Piatt -7 -0.3 B. McMillon -9 -0.33 S. Spencer -10 -0.34 H. Rodriguez -11 -0.35 R. Ledee -14 -0.39 D. Buford -16 -0.41 A. Rios -18 -0.44 C. Beltran -19 -0.45 D. Ward -21 -0.48 F. Crespo -21 -0.48 W. Magee -22 -0.49 B. Huskey -24 -0.52 R. Becker -24 -0.52 S. Spiezio -25 -0.53 J. Abbott -25 -0.53 M. Cummings -25 -0.53 R. Sanders -28 -0.57 B. Trammell -28 -0.57 W. Guerrero -28 -0.57 J. Guillen -29 -0.58 J. Giambi -29 -0.58 J. Canseco -34 -0.64 D. Hamilton -36 -0.67 M. Darr -36 -0.67 D. White -36 -0.67 R. Rivera -37 -0.68 D. Lewis -38 -0.69 S. Dunston -42 -0.74 H. Baines -44 -0.77 R. Branyan -45 -0.78 C. Murray -47 -0.81 R. Winn -48 -0.82 T. Jones -48 -0.82 J. Cabrera -49 -0.83 A. Ramirez -51 -0.86 R. Christenson -51 -0.86 B. Bonilla -52 -0.87 B. Aven -56 -0.92 J. Mabry -57 -0.94 J. Mouton -59 -0.96 M. Cordova -60 -0.97 M. Smith -61 -0.99 S. Green -70 -1.1 L. Matos -75 -1.16 K. Sefcik -81 -1.24 R. Ibanez -81 -1.24 C. Bellinger -84 -1.28 J. McEwing -88 -1.33 M. Bradley -90 -1.35 D. Bragg -91 -1.37 J. Tyner -93 -1.39 E. Brown -98 -1.46 T. Howard -104 -1.53 K. DeHaan -106 -1.56 R. Ducey -108 -1.58 T. Dunwoody -111 -1.62 G. Matthews -114 -1.66 F. Santangelo -115 -1.67 J. Leyritz -119 -1.72 T. Hubbard -127 -1.82 C. Hermansen -136 -1.94 B. Gilkey -138 -1.96 B. Brown -143 -2.03 J. Jaha -335 -4.47 Roto Notes
Luis Rivera - SP - Bal - One of the bright young stars in the Baltimore organization, Rivera went down with a spring training injury and is expected to be out for the year. He would have been a good stash late in this year's draft, but now better to pass.
Jose Rosado - SP - KC - Rosado is coming off surgery, but appears ahead of schedule and may end up back at full form by mid-season. Because of the injury, he may slip late into your draft and be well worth a pick.
LaTroy Hawkins - CL - Min - although a mediocre starter at best, Hawkins was 14-for-14 in save chances after being dubbed the closer late last year. This year, he figures to have the job all year, and even bad teams will win frequently enough for their closer to be valuable.
Jose Canseco - DH - ANA - As ridiculous as it sounds, Canseco may be a very productive DH this year. The job appears to be his alone, and the injury to Mo Vaughn leaves the Angles with few options. Don't be shocked if he puts up 30 homers and 100 RBI.
Brian Jordan - OF - Atl - spring has been good so far to Jordan, who has been injured a lot over the past few seasons. If he's hitting fourth in the Braves' order, he'll have a lot of RBI opportunities; provided he can stay healthy.
A.J. Burnett - SP - FLA - Last year it was a torn thumb ligament. This year, it's a stress fracture in his foot. This guy just can't seem to stay healthy. I don't believe the prognosis for early May - figure him to be out until June, and then to be ineffective.
Mike Matheny - C - Stl - Looking for a reasonably productive catcher in the National League? Matheny might be overlooked because his playing time last year was spotty and he missed the post-season with a freak injury. The injury is healed, and LaRussa loves him and will catch him a lot. Nice late pick.
Pedro Feliz - 3B - SF - If you own Russ Davis, you are well advised to also draft Feliz late. He is the future of the position with the Giants, and any faltering by Davis may result in a quick call-up for the talented kid.
Osvaldo Fernandez - SP - Cin - Coming back from arm trouble, Fernandez had a great September last year (1.59 ERA) and looks to be finally back to form. He'll likely be the #1 or #2 starter for the Reds, but many fantasy players will overlook him because of the past two injury-plagued seasons.
John Valentin - 3B - Bos - Once a feared hitter, the past several years have been lost to injury. With no other option, the Sox will give him the chance to be the starter again, and at a weak position, if he comes back to any kind of form, he'll be valuable, especially in a loaded Red Sox line-up.
Dean Palmer - 3B - Det - Palmer's shoulder pain is making it difficult for him to play defense. Can his strikeout total get any higher?
Jay Buhner - OF - Sea - once again bothered by injuries - this time a sore foot - Buhner's value as a rotisserie player is directly linked to his playing time, and it doesn't look like this year is going to be any better than the last few.
Chris Widger - C - Sea - More bad injury news for the Ms is that catcher Widger - expected to be a significant part of the offense and take most of the playing time away from Dan Wilson - is now hurt and not expected to start the season.
Ricky Ledee - OF - Tex - Once the most highly sought-after prize in the Yankee organization, he has languished in Texas following the trade that sent him there. He's the 4th outfielder, and figures to barely get 300 at-bats unless he gets traded or Texas has an injury to another outfielder. I like the chances of one of those things happening and Ledee finally getting a chance to fulfill his potential. Take him late and hope.
Odalis Perez - RP - Atl - After surgery, Perez seems to be back to form and figures to win a spot in the Atlanta bull pen. If you draft an Atlanta Starter, Perez would be a good insurance policy.
Britt Reames - SP - Mtl - After being traded from the deep St. Louis pen to the weak Montreal starting rotation, Reames figures to get lots of innings. The question is whether he'll get any run support.
Shane Reynolds - SP - Hou - still recovering from knee surgery, Reynolds figures to be back by May, and when he's healthy, he's a stud. He'll slip late in most drafts because of the injury, but remember that it's a knee, not an arm. He'll probably need some time to work his way back into shape, but if you can live with the Enron Field factor, he'll be good in the second half.
Jason Schmidt - SP - Pit - is recovering faster than expected from last season's surgery. Don't expect miracles, but he's good when healthy.
DD
Next time: Player Rankings - Part 2 -- Pitchers
Previous columns:
03/16/2001 - Strategy for your Roto Auction
03/10/2001 - Strategy for Your Roto Draft
03/02/2001 - Evaluating Players and Statistics - The Key to Winning Roto
02/22/2001 - Preparing for your Fantasy Draft
02/12/2001 - Rotisserie® Baseball - What is it, and why should I play?