Strategy for your Roto Auction
Last week, we talked about strategies for your straight draft. But, if your league holds an auction of players you need a different set of plans.
To a large extent, your auction strategy will depend on the format of your league -- how many players you must have in the starting line-up at each position, how many relief pitchers as opposed to starters, whether you can or must draft a designated hitter, and so on. There are some general rules that apply to all auction situations, however, that you should consider going in.
Be Organized
Come to the draft with a well-organized chart of all players. Have all the hitters listed by position, with your projected values and stats handy for each one. Be able to calmly flip to your page once the player's name is up for auction, and have a quick-reference list of where that player falls in your evaluation of the talent at that position. Have flags or highlights on the page to remind you of guys you particularly want to keep your eye on. By being prepared, you'll not only save time, but you'll be able to think about the bidding, instead of searching for the information.
As the draft progresses, keep track of the actual bid price of each player, so that you can compare how the bidding is going against your pre-draft estimates, and figure the value of others on your list relative to the prices that have already been paid. Consider making a note of which owner was the second-highest bidder on each player, and how much that was -so you can anticipate how high that owner is likely to go on the next best player at the same position. And definitely make a note of the owner who was the next highest bidder on players you get - those owners obviously wanted your guy, and should be your first call to talk trade involving that player.
Hitters vs. Pitchers
As I noted last week, historically the performance of hitters is much more predictable than the performance of pitchers. Hitters tend to perform within 15% of their lifetime average in any year, at least after three or four years in the majors. Therefore, when you buy a hitter, you know pretty much what you are getting (barring injury). With pitchers, even the best ones, year-to-year performance can be so affected by injuries (major and minor) and prolonged slumps that cannot be explained or anticipated, that the value of a pitcher is at best uncertain. In general, there is a solid pool of reasonably good pitching talent out there that you can get for moderate prices. If you do your homework and come into the draft with a list of "sleeper" pitching prospects, you can do very well indeed.
The upshot of this is that you should allocate your budget for your auction around the proposition that you can get cheap pitching that is as good or better than expensive pitching. If other owners are driving up the prices of the "best" pitchers, take heart that you will, by avoiding the bidding wars, be in a position to bid higher on the more-likely-to-perform hitters that you want, and still be able to pick up good pitching later.
The value of the "skill" positions
Rotisserie leagues are not won and lost in the outfield, they are won and lost in the infield. This is because the talent pool of good hitters who play Short, Third, Second, and Catcher is so much more shallow than the pool of outfield talent. When you look at the analysis of player values that will be published next week, consider whether you are better off with two solid middle infielders or two players of equal "absolute" value (same number of projected points) who play other positions. Keep in mind that not only do you get value for the best middle infielders, but by buying them you deprive all the other owners of them, forcing other owners to be stuck with poor players in those positions. Late in an auction, even mediocre middle infielders will be going for far more than their true value as two or three owners who still need a shortstop bid up the price of Neifi Perez.
Assign projected values in advance
One way to avoid being sucked into high bidding on players early in an auction is to assign absolute "unit" values to each player before the auction begins. By setting an upper limit, and sticking to it, you will avoid the temptation to bid to the moon on your favorite players.
You can use the Diamond Z-score analysis to aid you in determining how much more value you should assign to the players at the top of each position than the players below them. Assign an absolute value to the top player at each position, and then work downwards, assigning lower values as the Z-scores diminish. A player with a Z-score of 2 is probably worth twice as much as a player with a Z-score of 1, although the depth of the talent pool at the position may dictate different values.
If you go into the draft with the idea that you will "wait and see" how the bidding goes, you will tend to either get trapped into a too-high bid early, or not bid enough in early rounds on the middle of the road players. It is not a problem to bid properly when the best shortstop comes up for bid first, and then the next best, and so on. However, when the sixth best comes up for bid first, how much should you spend? If you have a value assigned going into the draft, you will be in a position to decide whether the bidding has gone too high.
Budget by position
Regardless of your overall spending cap, you should consider making a budget by position. Decide in advance how much you are willing to spend on each position, and stick to it at least through the first half of the auction until it becomes clear who will be available later and how the bidding is going. For example, if you budget 50 units for your shortstop position, and your league requires only one shortstop in the starting line-up, with at least one reserve, don't spend 60 units on Derek Jeter. However, if the bidding on Jeter is stalled at 40, consider jumping in, since if Jeter costs only 40, you certainly will be able to get a back-up for 10.
Roto Notes
Javier Vazquez - SP - Mtl - Vazquez is a good young pitcher, and is now the "ace" of the staff for the 'spos with the departure of Dustin Hermanson to St. Louis. Problem is that now Vazquez has to handle the "ace" role, which includes getting to pitch against the opponent's "ace" much of the time. Even if ERA and WHIP are good, look for wins to be hard for him to come by.
Doug Glanville - OF - Phi - after a great year in '99, Glanville fell to earth in '00, due to injuries and confidence problems. Then, adding to his fragile psyche, there were rumors of him being traded during the off season. There is a chance that, if he stays in Philly and can be confident in his role, he'll rebound to '99 form and be a bargain - but beware a player who seems to be as prone to off-field distractions.
Lance Berkman - OF - Hou - last year as a rookie, he played 2/3 of the season and hit 21 home runs with 67 RBI and batted .297. He was a highly touted prospect, now he's a highly touted starting center fielder. Given the Enron factor, look for him to be just as good in '00 - but for 600 AB.
Tony Womack - SS - Arz - if Womack qualifies as an outfielder in your league, then he'll be good. If he qualifies as a shortstop, which is where he will be playing this year, then he'll be Great - particularly in NL only leagues.
Armando Rios - OF - SF - off-season elbow surgery makes him a risk, and he didn't really demonstrate great plate discipline when he was in the lineup briefly last year. Despite the fact that the outfield job is "his to lose" - be careful, he may be so much dead weight early on. On the other hand, if he gets off to a slow start and another owner wants to dump him early, consider picking him up and hope that as the season goes along and his elbow feels better, he'll pick it up.
Scott Erickson -SP - Blt - in case you missed it, he's out for the bulk of the season with an injury.
Pat Hentgen - SP - Blt - Hentgen is the "ace" of this staff with the departure of Mussina and the injury to Scott Erickson. Don't expect much more than innings and a really, really bad WHIP and ERA out of Hentgen.
Chris Holt - SP - Det - Holt lost his salary arbitration case, which might put him in a bad mood for a while, but the change of scenery from Enron Field to Comerica Park should brighten his outlook as soon as the Tigers head north. Look for Holt to achieve the promise that was expected for him in Houston.
Gabe Kapler - OF -Tex - the Rangers gave Kapler a three-year contract and handed him the center field job. OK, now he's comfortable and injury-free (for a while). Let's see what he can do. There is a big upside here.
Rusty Greer - OF - Tex - The Rangers want Greer to lead off, which will boost his runs scored, but may cut down on his RBI. He signed a new contract, so at least he'll not be in his "walk" year.
Michael Barrett - C - Mtl - Last year, the expos switched Barrett back and forth between catcher and third base, which messed up his hitting. He's a pretty good defensive catcher, and it appears that the 'spos are going to let him catch full-time this year. He's young, and won't miss many games, and he has a live bat. Especially if doubles count in your league, think about him. Remember, some owners may have him listed as a Third Baseman, but if he qualifies in your league as a catcher, he's valuable.
Jason Schmidt -SP - Pit - Schmidt had a terrible year last year, culminating in season-ending surgery in August. He's ahead of schedule now in his rehab. When healthy, he was a consistent starter who put up pretty good strikeout numbers. Pay attention to his spring performances, particularly whether he's going 6 or 7 innings by the end of March. If so, think about him.
Tom Goodwin - OF - LA - it looks like the Dodgers are going to let Goodwin lead off and turn him loose on the base paths. If so, he'll be valuable. Pay attention to the Dodgers' lineups in late spring games to make sure it's for real, but his 50+ stolen bases may make him much more valuable than a lot of mid-level outfielders.
DD
Next week: Player Rankings - Part 1 -- Hitters
Previous columns:
03/10/2001 - Strategy for Your Roto Draft
03/02/2001 - Evaluating Players and Statistics - The Key to Winning Roto
02/22/2001 - Preparing for your Fantasy Draft
02/12/2001 - Rotisserie® Baseball - What is it, and why should I play?