Strategy for Your Roto Draft
So, you've meticulously analyzed all the players in the major leagues and created detailed lists of rankings and values. Now armed with the best available information -- who do you draft first? How much do you pay? The answer is: it depends. It depends on your philosophy of drafting. It depends on who is still available. It depends on what other owners are doing. Being prepared is more than half the battle, but acting quickly and adjusting to the circumstances of your particular draft are also vital. (As we get closer to the start of the season (the baseball season and the roto draft season), I'll give you my personal evaluation of players, by position. For now, let's talk about general strategy. This week, we'll talk about a straight draft. Next week, the auction-style.
The best way to prepare for your player draft is to have a set strategy going in so that you can effectively evaluate your options and your performance. This is true both of a traditional draft and an auction.
In a traditional draft, all players "cost" the same -- one pick. However, you must determine who is likely to be available in each round of the draft and determine who you would like to have. You must also determine where you would like to be positioned within the draft order (if that is an option). I recommend three methods of preparation for the early rounds of any draft.
First, make a realistic wish list of players that you think might be available and who you would like to have on your squad. If those players are available, take them. Second, make a list of the positions that you want to fill in the first five rounds of the draft. Typically, a strong draft will include in the first five rounds a second baseman, a shortstop, a starting pitcher, an outfielder or First basemen (i.e., best available slugger), and a closer. Make a list of the top few players at each position and make sure that you get at least three of them. You must resist the temptation to take two outfielders in the first five rounds if taking them means that you don't get a good middle infielder. Finally, target particular positions and the round by which you want to have them filled. Make sure that you have all your offensive positions filled by the 20th round. At that point pitching can wait.
The important point is to have a plan. If you want to make sure that you draft at least two players who steal bases, then stick to that plan even if it means passing up a more "valuable" player at some point in order to secure the steals category. If your plan includes getting two solid closers for the saves category, then go after them aggressively. You must react to the pool of available players, but you must also have an idea of what you want to accomplish.
A few tips.
1. Pitching can wait. It is important to have a small core of solid starters, but two is plenty. Three is probably excessive. If you draft more than three starters in the first ten rounds of the draft, you are asking for trouble. The performance of pitchers from year to year is so erratic that almost nobody is a sure bet. Hitters, on the other hand, are fairly predictable and you can bank on them performing at or near your projections. To spend valuable early round picks on starting pitchers who may not live up to expectations deprives your team of the foundation of hitters that you need. Closers, on the other hand, are more predictable, so treat them like hitters.
2. Catchers can wait. With a few notable exceptions, catchers have the lowest over-all ratings of all players. When your catching choices are between bad and worse, you can live with worse in the 20th round rather than taking bad in the 15th. Take an extra outfielder, unless you get an elite catcher.
3. Closers are hard to find. In most drafts, the owners will wait until someone "breaks the ice" by taking a top closer before anyone else jumps in and takes a reliever. But then the race is on. Don't be caught short. There are fewer than fifteen quality relievers in the majors on whom you can count for 30 saves. Unless you plan to punt the saves category, don't delay in taking a closer.
4. Take chances in the late rounds. Once you have your core of solid players, don't settle for below average journeymen who have almost no chance of having a great season just to pick up another body. Pick the rookie. Pick the former star who is coming off arm surgery. Pick the veteran who changed teams and may have new life. These players may have big downside risks, but their potential up-side if they have a big year is also there. Younger players are usually a good bet.
5. Pick playing time. A good player who plays part time is not as good as a lesser player who plays every day. Look at the team's roster and determine if your pick is going to be an everyday player.
6. Pick intelligent back-ups. In the very late rounds, when you are looking for those players who may have a good year if they get traded or if they get a break and get some playing time, think about how that might happen. Protect yourself by picking the real-life back-ups for your own players.
7. Pick a minor-leaguer. Think about spending your last round pick on someone who might get called up during the season. Find some pitcher in triple-A who could be an impact player, but who is still in the minors for some seasoning. If he gets called up, you might have a late-season gold mine.
One final word of advice about the draft -- be organized. Have your draft sheets well prepared. Keep track of who has been picked and who is remaining. Keep track of who you have taken and what positions remain to be filled. The draft is not the place to be leafing through the paper looking at a player's stats.
Roto Notes
Mike Cameron - OF - SEA - last year he was dropped down in the order when Rickey Henderson was batting lead off. This year, Cameron will move back to the top of the order and put up decent lead-off numbers.
Carlos Guillen - SS - SEA - with A-Rod gone, Guillen moves back to his natural position, and should be an outstanding shortstop for Seattle. If he only qualifies as a 3B in your league based on last year's numbers - change your rules. He's a shortstop.
Ivan Rodriguez - C - TX - Remember Igor? Don't forget about him just because of last year's injury. With A-Rod to protect him, he'll be a monster again.
Fernando Tatis - 3B - MTL - look for a fall-off in power numbers for Fernando.
Mark Grace - 1B - AZ - I don't care what anybody says - you watch Grace have a great season this year.
Ellis Burks - OF/DH - CLE - Signed to help full the Manny Ramirez void, Burks is better off in the AL where he can DH most of the time and save his knees. Could be a real sleeper here.
Todd Walker - 2B - COL - Once the brightest star in the Minnesota organization and rookie of the year in the AL, he fell on hard times. Now, the hard times are over and the Coors Field party is just starting. He's got the job now, and he'll be great in '01. Bet the farm.
DD
Next week: Strategy for Your Roto Auction
Previous columns:
03/02/2001 - Evaluating Players and Statistics - The Key to Winning Roto
02/22/2001 - Preparing for your Fantasy Draft
02/12/2001 - Rotisserie® Baseball - What is it, and why should I play?